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Uncertainty over the officials’ monetary and fiscal policy responses kept a lid on the dollar’s volatility last week.

Think we’ll see more action in the next few days?

Here are potential catalysts that you should know about:

Lower tier releases

  • Headline PPI (Aug 11, 12:30 pm GMT) is expected to grow by 0.3% (from -0.2%) in July
  • Headline CPI (Aug 12, 12:30 pm GMT) seen lower (0.3% from 0.6%)
  • Annualized core CPI could print at 0.1% after 0.2% uptick last month
  • Industrial production (Aug 15, 1:15 pm GMT) could slow down from 5.4% to 3.0%

Retail sales (Aug 14, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Retail trading slowed down from 18.2% to 7.5% in June but still exceeded 5.0% growth estimates
  • Core retail sales also ticked lower from 12.1% to 7.3%
  • The better-than-expected report was not enough to lift USD, which took hits from other data misses during the trading session
  • Markets see a 2.0% uptick for the headline retail sales
  • Core retail sales could gain by another 1.5%

Overall dollar demand

  • Now that the POTUS has signed a series of Executive Orders to extend tax breaks and unemployment benefits, eyes will be on Congress and its (a) opinion on the legality of Trump’s orders and (b) willingness to make a deal with Treasury in drafting another stimulus package
  • Trump signing other Executive Orders against China’s WeChat, TikTok, and a couple of Chinese and Hong Kong officials will also affect overall risk-taking and the demand for the safe haven dollar
  • Coronavirus-related updates like the number of cases, death and hospitalizations, lockdown plans, and economic outlook will also affect the demand for the dollar

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the dollar as “oversold” against the European currencies
  • USD is in neutral territory against NZD and JPY
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • SMAs confirm the dollar’s bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
  • It’s starting to see short-term strength across the board, however
  • Look out for retracement or reversal opportunities on NZD/USD
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • The dollar saw the most volatility against AUD, NZD, EUR, and GBP in the last seven days
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
USD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for August 3 – 7!