The RBNZ is up this week!
What are the markets expecting from the event?
I’ve got a list of catalysts you’ll want to know about if you’re trading the comdoll in the next couple of days!
RBNZ’s policy decision (Aug 12, 2:00 am GMT)
- As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its interest rates steady at 0.25% in July
- Goveror Orr left negative interest rates and direct bond purchases on the table, which weighed on NZD for the rest of the day
- Markets don’t expect changes from the central bank in August
- Orr will host a presser at 3:00 am GMT. Watch for his sentiments on global and domestic recovery, as well as RBNZ’s immediate policy biases
Business NZ manufacturing index (Aug 13, 10:30 pm GMT)
- RBNZ members consider business surveys like this in their policy decisions so you should too
- The index jumped from 39.8 to 56.3 in June, which helped support NZD during the Asian session
- Analysts see the index printing at 57.0 in July
Major data from Australia and China
- New Zealand does A LOT of trading with Australia and China, so economic indicators from the economies also influence demand for NZD
- Australia’s labor market release (Aug 13, 1:30 am GMT) is expected to add a net of 110,000 jobs though the unemployment rate could tick higher from 7.4% to 7.7%
- China’s data dump (Aug 14, 2:00 am GMT) could see better retail sales, industrial production, unemployment rate, and fixed asset investment in July
Market risk sentiment
- Pandemic-related updates (number of cases, vaccine and stimulus prospects, lockdown plans) will continue to affect the demand for NZD
- Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can also affect appetite for the high yielding comdoll
Technical snapshot
- RSI is flagging NZD’s “oversold” conditions against AUD
- NZD may soon hit oversold status against EUR and GBP
- NZD remains in neutral territory against USD, CAD, and JPY
- NZD is trading below short and long-term SMAs against CHF, EUR, and AUD
- NZD/USD and NZD/CAD may see retracement or reversal opportunities on the daily time frame
- NZD saw the most volatility against the safe havens and CAD in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for August 3 – 7!
