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The RBNZ is up this week!

What are the markets expecting from the event?

I’ve got a list of catalysts you’ll want to know about if you’re trading the comdoll in the next couple of days!

RBNZ’s policy decision (Aug 12, 2:00 am GMT)

  • As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its interest rates steady at 0.25% in July
  • Goveror Orr left negative interest rates and direct bond purchases on the table, which weighed on NZD for the rest of the day
  • Markets don’t expect changes from the central bank in August
  • Orr will host a presser at 3:00 am GMT. Watch for his sentiments on global and domestic recovery, as well as RBNZ’s immediate policy biases

Business NZ manufacturing index (Aug 13, 10:30 pm GMT)

  • RBNZ members consider business surveys like this in their policy decisions so you should too
  • The index jumped from 39.8 to 56.3 in June, which helped support NZD during the Asian session
  • Analysts see the index printing at 57.0 in July

Major data from Australia and China

  • New Zealand does A LOT of trading with Australia and China, so economic indicators from the economies also influence demand for NZD
  • Australia’s labor market release (Aug 13, 1:30 am GMT) is expected to add a net of 110,000 jobs though the unemployment rate could tick higher from 7.4% to 7.7%
  • China’s data dump (Aug 14, 2:00 am GMT) could see better retail sales, industrial production, unemployment rate, and fixed asset investment in July

Market risk sentiment

  • Pandemic-related updates (number of cases, vaccine and stimulus prospects, lockdown plans) will continue to affect the demand for NZD
  • Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can also affect appetite for the high yielding comdoll

Technical snapshot

  • RSI is flagging NZD’s “oversold” conditions against AUD
  • NZD may soon hit oversold status against EUR and GBP
  • NZD remains in neutral territory against USD, CAD, and JPY
NZD Forex Pairs RSI from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs RSI from MarketMilk
  • NZD is trading below short and long-term SMAs against CHF, EUR, and AUD
  • NZD/USD and NZD/CAD may see retracement or reversal opportunities on the daily time frame
NZD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs SMAs from MarketMilk
  • NZD saw the most volatility against the safe havens and CAD in the last seven days
NZD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
NZD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for August 3 – 7!