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The dollar was king of pips in the first full trading week of the year. Can the bulls maintain their momentum with this week’s catalysts?

Here’s a list of events you should watch out for:

Consumer price index (Jan 14, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Headline CPI came in at 0.3% in November, less than October’s 0.4% but higher than the 0.2% growth expected. Core CPI maintained its 0.2% growth as expected
  • The report came hours before the FOMC’s statement, so USD’s reaction was muted until after the Fed’s event
  • Market players see both headline and core CPI at 0.2% in December

Retail sales (Jan 16, 1:30 pm GMT)

  • Both headline and core retail sales missed expectations with a respective growth of 0.2% and 0.1% in November. Analysts saw the figures at 0.5% and 0.4% respectively
  • The data cast doubt on the helpfulness of a strong labor market on economic activity
  • Traders see headline retail sales at 0.3%, while core retail sales is expected at 0.1% in December

Lower-tier economic releases

  • Headline PPI (Jan 15, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected at 0.2% (from 0.0%) while core PPI could print at 0.2% (from -0.2%) in December
  • NY’s manufacturing index (Jan 15, 1:30 pm GMT) could improve from 3.5 to 4.0 in January
  • Philly Fed manufacturing index (Jan 16, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected to rise from 2.4 to 3.4 in January
  • Industrial production (Jan 17, 2:15 pm GMT) is seen at 0.0% after a 1.1% gain in November

FOMC member speeches

  • Voting member John Williams (Jan 14, 2:00 pm GMT) will give a speech about financial services in London
  • Voting member Patrick Harker of Philadelphia (Jan 15, 4:00 pm GMT) will speak about policy normalization in New York
  • Voting member Robert Kaplan of Dallas (Jan 15, 5:00 pm GMT) will give a speech at the Economic Club of New York
  • Michelle Bowman (Jan 16, 3:00 pm GMT), who will only vote until January 2020, will share her outlook for housing in Kansas City
  • Patrick Harker of Philadelphia (Jan 17, 2:00 pm GMT) will return with a speech in New Jersey
  • Voting member Randal Quarles (Jan 17, 5:45 pm GMT) is expected to talk bank supervision in DC

Technical snapshot

    Stochastic is signalling USD’s “overbought” conditions against JPY, AUD, and NZD

  • USD/JPY is trading above its long AND short-term SMAs on the daily
  • GBP/USD is trading below its 200 SMA but above its shorter-term SMAs. Watch out for retracements or longer-term reversals
  • NZD/USD is trading above its longer-term SMAs but below its shorter-term SMAS
  • USD/CHF and USD/CAD are trading below its SMAs except for the short-term 5 SMA

Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for January 6 – 10!