GBP Weekly Forecast (Jan. 13 – 17)

Got a few major reports coming in from the U.K. this week, and these should provide clues on future BOE action. Here’s what’s lined up!

Monthly GDP & manufacturing production (Jan. 13, 10:30 am GMT)

• U.K. economy probably stagnated again in Nov. with flat GDP reading
• GDP figure hasn’t shown growth since August 2019
• Manufacturing production to show 0.3% decline after earlier 0.2% uptick
• Manufacturing performance is seen to be a leading indicator of economic health

BOE MPC member Saunders’ speech (Jan. 15, 9:40 am GMT)

• BOE official Michael Saunders was one of the MPC members who dissented and voted to cut rates in the latest decision.
• He is due to give brief remarks at  the South Eastern Regional College breakfast in Northern Ireland, but audience questions are expected.
• Emphasis on his dovish stance could put downside pressure on GBP, especially if economic data fail to impress.

Inflation reports (Jan. 15, 10:30 am GMT)

• U.K. headline CPI to hold steady at 1.5% y/y in Dec.
• U.K. core CPI also expected to stay at 1.7% y/y
• Producer input prices to show 0.2% rebound after earlier 0.3% dip
• Producer output prices to stay flat after earlier 0.2% decline

Retail sales (Jan. 17, 10:30 am GMT)

• Consumer spending to post 0.8% rebound in Dec. after previous 0.6% slump
• Seasonal shopping likely accounted for the pickup in retail sales
• Actual figures came in below expectations in the past couple of months

Technical snapshot

• The trend analysis tool on MarketMilk paints a mixed picture for pound pairs, but the 50 MA suggests that most are moving towards bearish territory.

• Stochastic reveals that Guppy might be the most bullish of the bunch while the rest are on neutral grounds.

Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for January 6 – 10!