Got a few major reports coming in from the U.K. this week, and these should provide clues on future BOE action. Here’s what’s lined up!
Monthly GDP & manufacturing production (Jan. 13, 10:30 am GMT)
- U.K. economy probably stagnated again in Nov. with flat GDP reading
- GDP figure hasn’t shown growth since August 2019
- Manufacturing production to show 0.3% decline after earlier 0.2% uptick
- Manufacturing performance is seen to be a leading indicator of economic health
BOE MPC member Saunders’ speech (Jan. 15, 9:40 am GMT)
- BOE official Michael Saunders was one of the MPC members who dissented and voted to cut rates in the latest decision.
- He is due to give brief remarks at the South Eastern Regional College breakfast in Northern Ireland, but audience questions are expected.
- Emphasis on his dovish stance could put downside pressure on GBP, especially if economic data fail to impress.
Inflation reports (Jan. 15, 10:30 am GMT)
- U.K. headline CPI to hold steady at 1.5% y/y in Dec.
- U.K. core CPI also expected to stay at 1.7% y/y
- Producer input prices to show 0.2% rebound after earlier 0.3% dip
- Producer output prices to stay flat after earlier 0.2% decline
Retail sales (Jan. 17, 10:30 am GMT)
- Consumer spending to post 0.8% rebound in Dec. after previous 0.6% slump
- Seasonal shopping likely accounted for the pickup in retail sales
- Actual figures came in below expectations in the past couple of months
- The trend analysis tool on MarketMilk paints a mixed picture for pound pairs, but the 50 MA suggests that most are moving towards bearish territory.
- Stochastic reveals that Guppy might be the most bullish of the bunch while the rest are on neutral grounds.
Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for January 6 – 10!