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Got a few major reports coming in from the U.K. this week, and these should provide clues on future BOE action. Here’s what’s lined up!

Monthly GDP & manufacturing production (Jan. 13, 10:30 am GMT)

  • U.K. economy probably stagnated again in Nov. with flat GDP reading
  • GDP figure hasn’t shown growth since August 2019
  • Manufacturing production to show 0.3% decline after earlier 0.2% uptick
  • Manufacturing performance is seen to be a leading indicator of economic health

BOE MPC member Saunders’ speech (Jan. 15, 9:40 am GMT)

  • BOE official Michael Saunders was one of the MPC members who dissented and voted to cut rates in the latest decision.
  • He is due to give brief remarks at  the South Eastern Regional College breakfast in Northern Ireland, but audience questions are expected.
  • Emphasis on his dovish stance could put downside pressure on GBP, especially if economic data fail to impress.

Inflation reports (Jan. 15, 10:30 am GMT)

  • U.K. headline CPI to hold steady at 1.5% y/y in Dec.
  • U.K. core CPI also expected to stay at 1.7% y/y
  • Producer input prices to show 0.2% rebound after earlier 0.3% dip
  • Producer output prices to stay flat after earlier 0.2% decline

Retail sales (Jan. 17, 10:30 am GMT)

  • Consumer spending to post 0.8% rebound in Dec. after previous 0.6% slump
  • Seasonal shopping likely accounted for the pickup in retail sales
  • Actual figures came in below expectations in the past couple of months

Technical snapshot

  • The trend analysis tool on MarketMilk paints a mixed picture for pound pairs, but the 50 MA suggests that most are moving towards bearish territory.
GBP Trend Analysis from MarketMilk
GBP Trend Analysis from MarketMilk
  • Stochastic reveals that Guppy might be the most bullish of the bunch while the rest are on neutral grounds.
GBP Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
GBP Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for January 6 – 10!