The dollar had a wobbly week last week thanks to a mix of domestic data and market risk sentiment. Which catalysts will move the Greenback this week?
FOMC meeting minutes (Oct 9, 6:00 pm GMT)
Uncle Sam doesn’t have a lot going for it data wise, but we could get clues on just how divided FOMC members are about its next monetary policy steps.
If you recall, three out of ten members had voted against a 25-basis point cut in September. James Bullard had voted for a 50-basis point cut, while Esther George and Eric Rosengren had voted to keep policies steady.
FOMC Chairman Powell has TWO scheduled speeches ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release.
The first one is scheduled tomorrow at 5:50 pm GMT when he delivers a speech titled “Data Dependence in an Evolving Economy” in Denver. Then, on Wednesday at 3:00 pm GMT he will participate in a panel discussion in Kansas City.
If there are points that FOMC voting members haven’t expressed last week and the days leading up to the meeting minutes release, then Powell will likely hint at them before the actual event.
Are Fed members divided as the votes suggest? Which issues are they looking at closely for policy direction? More importantly, how will the dollar react to any new information?
Don’t even think of missing the event!
CPI reports (Oct 10, 12:30 pm GMT)Friday’s NFP reports showed us that Uncle Sam’s labor market remained resilient despite weaknesses seen in the manufacturing and services sectors.
This week we’ll see if strong consumer spending prospects actually lead to higher prices.
Analysts expect the headline consumer price index (CPI) to maintain its 0.1% growth for the month of September, while the core figure is seen printing at 0.2% after August’s 0.3% increase. On an annualized basis, prices are expected to rise by 1.8% against August’s 1.7% uptick.
Last month’s slight slowdown in headline prices reflected the price decreases in gasoline and energy products. Luckily for dollar bulls, traders were more interested in pricing in the European Central Bank (ECB)’s policy decision then.
Note that week’s CPI report is scheduled an hour or two from the ECB’s meeting minutes. That means y’all gotta be careful with your dollar trades if you’re planning on trading the event!
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Sept. 30 – Oct. 4!