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Despite a busy week of economic updates from the U.S., USD price action was mixed as counter currency & geopolitical developments had a bigger influence on relative performance. Overall, it was a next positive week for the Greenback, arguably on positive developments from the U.S.-China trade story and a net positive lean in U.S. economic updates.
United States Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- China’s exports to the US are falling sharply as Trump escalates the trade war
- US consumer borrowing posts $23.3 billion gain, biggest gain since late 2017
Tuesday:
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 103.1 vs. 104.7 previous
- Trump fires John Bolton as national security adviser
- Global risk sentiment began to shift towards positive for the week, starting with talk that China ready to sweeten deal by buying American goods. Off this development, we begin to see the dollar fall against the “risk” currencies and gain against the “safe havens” (i.e., Japanese yen & Swiss franc)
Wednesday:
- Weekly U.S. mortgage applications rise as buyer’s market takes hold
- US producer prices unexpectedly rise in August
- Trump reverses course, seeks negative interest rates for U.S. debt
Thursday:
- Trump delays tariff hikes on Chinese goods ahead of talks
- US consumer prices rise a slight 0.1% in August
- Global risk sentiment continues to move towards positive on both the improving U.S.-China trade situation (China exempts U.S. agricultural products from tariffs after reports of potential interim trade deal) and the ECB’s stimulus package. Unfortunately, no uniform directional bias for the Greenback as we saw under performance against the euro, pound & Aussie while tracking higher against the Loonie, Kiwi and safe havens.
Friday: