Will the dollar continue to benefit from a global risk-off situation? Here are catalysts that might swing its price in either direction.
Retail sales (May 15, 1:30 pm GMT)
Retail activity jumped by 1.6% in March, much better than the 0.2% decline in February and marked the biggest increase since September 2017.
A closer look told us that 12 out of 13 retail categories had shown increases during the month, with motor vehicles and a range of other goods leading the charge.
The dollar kicked pip butt across the board during the release.
This week analysts expect to see retail activity take a chill pill and only grow by 0.7% in April. Ditto for core retail sales, which excludes volatile items such as autos.
Positive numbers will show us that last month’s strength was not a fluke. Weaker-than-expected releases, on the other hand, could undo some of the dollar’s strength from last week.
The U.S. imposing higher tariffs on Chinese products and the prospect of China retaliating will put extra attention on the strength of manufacturing activity in the U.S. this week.
First up is the Empire State survey (May 15, 1:30 pm GMT), which is expected to slip from 10.1 to a 8.0 reading in May.
Industrial production (May 15, 2:15 pm GMT) is next. If you recall, we found out last month that U.S. industrial production had weakened in March. This time around traders are expecting a 0.1% increase. Can the report deliver?
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (May 16, 1:30 pm GMT) is the last of the major releases. Traders see the report at 10.0 in May, higher than the 8.5 read that we saw in April.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for May 6 – 10!