Not a lot of top-tier data from New Zealand, which means that the Kiwi will most likely take its cues from risk sentiment and countercurrency price action.
Business NZ manufacturing index (May 16, 11:30 pm GMT)
Officials from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) often cite the business NZ manufacturing index results in their speeches, so you can bet your pips that traders will be watching this week’s release.
In last month’s release the report showed that manufacturing activity had cooled from 53.7 to 51.9 in March as production and new orders fell.
The Kiwi spiked lower at the release of the report before the bulls stepped in to defend an intraweek psychological support level.
This week analysts expect to see the index climb from 51.9 to 54.5 for the month of April.
A lower-than-expected release – especially at the heels of an RBNZ rate cut – could drag the Kiwi lower across the board. On the other hand, a strong report could push the comdoll high enough to regain some of its lost pips.
Market risk sentiment
An empty economic calendar usually means that the New Zealand dollar will dance to the tune of overall risk sentiment and countercurrency price action.
Australia is printing its labor market data this week on top of holding its Parliamentary elections later in the week. Meanwhile, China is dumping a bunch of top-tier releases on Wednesday during the Asian session.
Oh, and don’t forget that the markets have yet to fully digest the additional tariffs that the U.S. has just sicced on China’s products!
Word on the hood is that Chinese President Xi is waiting on Chief negotiator Liu He for deets on the results of this week’s talks in Washington before the world’s second-largest economy decides on its next steps.
In the meantime, upside moves for commodity-related and high-yielding currencies could be limited in the next couple of days.
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for May 6 – 10!