Will traders finally price in last week’s strong NFP report? Or will other catalysts move the dollar this week? Here’s a list of potential market movers!
Powell’s speech (May 9, 1:30 pm GMT)
One of the reasons why the dollar hasn’t fallen more sharply last week is that Powell and his gang are still relatively less dovish compared to their global counterparts.
This week the Fed head honcho is scheduled to give a speech in D.C. We already know what major FOMC members like Williams and Bullard think about the economy. Will Powell echo their calls for easy policies?
Trade balance (May 9, 1:30 pm GMT)
Uncle Sam’s trade deficit narrowed down from $51.1B in January to $49.4 in February and marked the tightest deficit since June 2018.
Apparently, exports had risen by 1.1% while imports only saw a 0.2% increase for the month.
This week analysts expect to see the deficit widen to $54.0B for the month of March. Thanks to a re-escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, traders will be paying close attention to this week’s release.
If the U.S. deficit clocks in much wider than many are expecting, then we could see the dollar trade higher against its higher-yielding counterparts. But if March’s numbers provide no cause for concern, then we could see limited reaction, if not a bit of dollar weakness as traders take on more risks.
CPI (May 10, 1:30 pm GMT)
Consumer prices rose by 1.9% from a year ago in March, which was better than the two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5% seen in February and the 1.8% uptick that markets had expected.
The core figure, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, slipped by from 2.1% to 2.0% from a year ago. On a monthly basis, prices had risen by 0.4%, the fastest since January 2018.
A report printed last week showed the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation show no growth in March. The core PCE came in at 1.6%, not much different from February’s numbers.
Let’s see if this week’s CPI numbers mirror the lack of price increases. Market geeks still see headline inflation come in at 0.4% in April, while the core figure is expected to speed up from 0.1% to 0.2%.
Meanwhile, the more closely-watched annualized figure is expected to print at 2.5% for the month.
This week’s numbers could shape how dovish the markets would think the Fed would be in the foreseeable future, so make sure you’re around during the release!
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for April 29 – May 3!