We’re looking at another set of low-tier reports from the euro zone and not much from the Swiss economy this week. Any potential surprises?
EU Economic Forecasts (May 7, 9:00 am GMT)
The latest batch of economic estimates from the European Union should take into account the recent data misses since their earlier update in February.
At that time, the EU projected that the overall region is expected to expand during the year but that growth would moderate and that a lot of uncertainty is weighing on their outlook.
In particular, these uncertainties involve Brexit, trade tensions, a slowdown in emerging markets, and resurfacing concerns on debt sustainability. Estimates for inflation were also lowered to incorporate declines in energy prices.
This time, growth forecasts might see another round of adjustments as business indicators have showed more signs of a slowdown.
ECB monetary policy meeting accounts (May 8, 11:30 am GMT)
ECB policymakers are due to release the minutes of their April huddle, and these would likely contain some clues on what their next moves might be.
In last month’s statement, the central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged and kept its forward guidance steady. However, during the presser, Draghi acknowledged that incoming data has been weak and that “slower growth momentum is expected to extend into the current year.”
On a less downbeat note, he also mentioned that the probability of a recession remains low. The minutes of the meeting should reveal if other policymakers feel the same way.
Politics is starting to take center stage for the euro zone once more, although ECB head Draghi tried to dismiss this topic in last month’s policy statement.
For one, Spain is in the middle of forming a new government that is still riddled with some tensions. Portugal’s government is on shaky footing as its PM threatened to resign on budget disputes.
On top of all that, the spotlight is also returning to trade tensions as the U.S. announced new tariffs on China, raising concerns that its row with Europe could escalate as well.
Missed last week’s price action? Read the EUR & CHF price review for April 29 – May 3.