Uncle Sam will print its advance GDP report in a few days! Think you’re ready to trade the report? Here are catalysts that might affect the dollar this week.
Durable goods orders (Apr 25, 1:30 pm GMT)
New orders for U.S.-manufactured, durable goods slid by 1.6% in February, which was worse than the 0.1% decline in January but better than estimates of a 1.8% increase.
If you’ve just started trading, then you should know that higher purchases of durable goods usually means that businesses are confident enough in their prospects to buy long-term materials for their operations.
This week traders are expecting to see headline durable goods orders 0.5% for the month of March. The core figure, which excludes volatile items such as transportation, is expected to gain 0.4% after dipping by 0.1%.
If the durable goods orders doesn’t move the dollar, then you might want to watch mid-tier releases such as the existing home sales (Apr 22, 3:00 pm GMT) and new home sales (Apr 23, 3:00 pm GMT). If y’all recall, traders have looked to these reports before for cues on how Uncle Sam is faring.
Advance GDP (Apr 26, 1:30 pm GMT)
For newbies out there, know that the U.S. prints three versions of the quarterly GDP report. What makes the “advance” copy important is that it’s the first glimpse of how the economy fared.
In the last “advance” reading we found out that the economy grew by 2.6% in Q4 2018, higher than the 2.2% uptick that analysts had estimated but lower than the 3.4% growth that we saw in Q3 2018.
On Friday analysts are expecting to see an even slower growth, this time 1.6% from the previous 2.6% reading.
We already know that traders weren’t too impressed with last week’s retail sales numbers as they’re unlikely to knock the Fed off their dovish biases anyway.
If the GDP report comes in better than analysts had expected, then we could see the dollar gain ground against its counterparts.
Or not. Remember that the dollar could also act as a safe haven, which means that the higher-yielding currencies could find support from the world’s largest economy printing solid growth numbers.