The BOJ is up this week, folks! What will Kuroda and his team have to say? More importantly, how will market players react?
Here’s a list of potential yen movers this week:
BOJ’s policy statement (Apr 25, Asian session)
As expected, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policies unchanged for another month in March.
What surprised markets, however, was that the central bank talked about downside risks such as U.S.’ protectionist policies, Brexit, and developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies.
This week market geeks expect a bit more cautiousness, if not dovishness, from Governor Kuroda and his gang.
See, annualized inflation remains below 1.0%, not even halfway to the BOJ’s 2.0% target. But central bank members aren’t exactly excited to add more stimulus since doing more of the same will likely have more negative side effects than positive ones.
This is why some analysts believe that Kuroda and his friends would rather share their cautiousness to help prevent yen-buying. This can include a longer period of dovish forward guidance, a downgrade of their inflation forecasts, or more hints of downside risks and future stimulus injections.
Friday data dump (Apr 26, Asian session)
If the BOJ’s event turns out to be a non-mover, then yen traders could get their volatility when Japan prints a bunch of mid-tier data near the end of the week.
Tokyo’s core CPI – a widely considered leading indicator for Japan’s CPI – is expected to print a 1.1% gain in April.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate (2.4% vs. 2.3% previous) and industrial production (0.1% vs. 0.7% previous), and monthly retail sales (0.2% vs 0.4% previous) data are expected to come in weaker than their previous readings.
While these reports don’t usually influence the yen’s price action for long, significant hits or miss from these reports could inspire intraday trends for the low-yielding currency.