The U.S. data calendar might not be as busy as it was in the last few weeks, but that doesn’t mean you should take a chill pill! Here are potential catalysts to watch out for.
We know from the previous weeks’ price action that lower-tier reports can add up and build a case for intraweek trends for the dollar.
This week we’ll see a bunch of manufacturing-related reports. One look at the forex calendar tells us that New York’s manufacturing index (Apr 15, 1:30 pm GMT) is expected to improve from 3.7 to 6.7 in April; industrial production (Apr 16, 1:30 pm GMT) could see 0.2% growth against its 0.1% increase in February, and Markit’s flash manufacturing PMI (Apr 18, 2:45 pm GMT) might tick higher from 52.4 to 52.8 in April.
Recent reports reflect that trade-related uncertainty have weighed on investment spending in the U.S.
And while services still take a bigger chunk of the economy, traders will be watching the manufacturing reports to see if global economic slowdown have weighed on the manufacturing sector as well.
Trade balance (Apr 17, 1:30 pm GMT)
One of the reasons why the dollar hasn’t fallen sharply despite the Fed’s dovishness is that traders remain optimistic that the U.S. will reach a legit trade deal with China in the foreseeable future.
This week we’ll see just how badly Uncle Sam needs to make those deals. See, market players expect the U.S.’ trade deficit to widen from 51.1B USD to 53.6B USD in January.
If this week’s numbers come in better-than-expected like they did in the previous release, then we might see a repeat of dollar strength that could last the entire trading session.
But if trade numbers reflect the loss of demand hinted at by other manufacturing data, then the Greenback lose a pip or two (or twenty) against its major counterparts.
Retail sales (Apr 18, 1:30 pm GMT)
Retail spending dipped by 0.2% in February, which is weaker than the 0.7% growth in January AND the 0.3% increase that analysts had expected.
Luckily for the dollar, traders felt like celebrating the stronger-than-expected manufacturing reports more. The Greenback gained across the board and maintained its levels for most of the week.
This week analysts see retail sales rebounding by 0.8% in March. The core figure, which excludes volatile items such as automobiles, can also shoot up by 0.7% after slipping by 0.4% in February.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for April 8 – 12!