Canada has a bunch of top-tier reports scheduled this week! But will traders pay attention? Or will price action be all about crude oil this time?
CPI and trade balance reports (Apr 17, 1:30 pm GMT)
Canada’s consumer prices popped up by 1.5% from a year ago in February, slightly faster than the 1.4% price growth that we saw in January. Turned out, all eight major components had shown growth during the period.
Unfortunately for Loonie bulls, traders were too busy freaking out over global growth concerns at the time. Of course, it also didn’t help that Canada’s retail sales – which was released at the same time as the CPI report – missed analysts’ expectations.
This week market geeks expect to see monthly consumer prices slow down from 0.7% to 0.6% in March. Ditto for the annualized reading, which is expected to print at 1.8% after seeing 1.5% uptick in February.
Take note that Canada will also be printing its February trade data at the same time as the March CPI numbers.
If y’all recall, the economy’s trade deficit had narrowed down from 4.82B CAD to 4.25B CAD as higher crude oil prices boosted exports by 2.9%. That was its first increase since July, yo!
Analysts think that the trade deficit will narrow down further to just 3.50B CAD this week. Given that the Bank of Canada (BOC) has repeated its worries over global growth, this week’s trade data could give clues on just how worried the central bank should be.
Retail sales (Apr 18, 1:30 pm GMT)
Retail trade slipped by another 0.3% in January, which mirrored December’s decline and missed market expectations of a 0.4% increase.
Traders weren’t comfortable with the data miss especially since it came out amidst global growth concerns. Heck, the Loonie slipped lower despite a positive CPI report!
This week market geeks expect to see a 0.5% growth on the headline figure. The core figure, which excludes volatile items such as automobiles, is also expected to improve from 0.1% to 0.2%.
Now that the Bank of Canada (BOC) is “data dependent” and that some traders are looking for the earliest signs of easing, any surprises in the retail sales report could cause intraday trends for the Loonie.
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for April 8 – 12!