It’s NFP week, folks! Think you’re ready to trade the dollar this week? Check out the economic reports you should be preparing for!
Retail sales (Apr 1, 1:30 pm GMT)
Retail activity edged 0.1% higher in January, which was a relief after it clocked in the fastest dip in 10 years in December.
At the time, home centers and internet stores had led the increase, while auto and gas stations showed weaker activity.
This week, analysts expect to see a 0.3% growth for the headline figure, while the core reading – which excludes volatile items – is expected to come in at 0.4% after registering a 0.9% growth last month.
Take note that reports such as ISM’s manufacturing PMI and business inventories are scheduled for release after the retail sales data. That means there’s a chance that reaction to the report may be muted or countered by other events later in the day!
Manufacturing and services PMIs
With Uncle Sam’s final GDP coming in just under what markets had expected, all eyes will be on factors such as the manufacturing and services PMIs for cues on how strong (or weak) the economy’s growth will be down the road.
The ISM manufacturing PMI (Apr 1, 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to inch up from 54.2 to 54.3 in February. Its non-manufacturing counterpart (Apr 3, 3:00 pm GMT), on the other hand, is estimated to inch lower from 59.7 to 58.0 for the month.
If you check your forex calendars, you’ll see that both reports are scheduled along with other lower and mid-tier releases, Y’all should be careful in considering these catalysts in your intraday trends!
A brand spankin’ new trading week means another chance to trade a non-farm payrolls (NFP) release!If y’all recall, Uncle Sam’s headline numbers surprised to the downside last month. While the unemployment rate edged lower from 4.0% to 3.8%, there were also only 20,000 net jobs added for the month.
At the time, average hourly earnings became the saving grace with its 0.4% growth when analysts had only expected a 0.3% uptick.
This week, analysts are looking for average earnings to rise by another 0.2%; unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%, and for a net of 175,000 jobs to be added in the work force.
To help fine tune traders’ predictions, they’ll look for “leading indicators” that could give clues on Friday’s headline release.
The employment components of ISM’s manufacturing and services PMIs, for example, could point to a trend among business owners.
Traders also look to the ADP non-farm employment change (Apr 3, 1:15 pm GMT), which is expected to show +180,000 after clocking in at +183,000 in the previous month.
Last but not the least are Thursday’s Challenger job cuts (12:30 pm GMT) and unemployment claims (1:30 pm GMT). While they usually don’t cause big waves, they could move the dollar by a pip or two if they show big surprises in their numbers.
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for March 25 – 29!