Looks like Canada is finally getting higher-tier reports this week! Which ones should you watch out for?
Huge improvements in the manufacturing and construction industries led to a 0.6% increase in goods production in January, which was also why Canada’s monthly GDP surprised to the upside a couple of days back.
Will manufacturing continue to show strength this week? Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Apr 1, 2:30 pm GMT) is expected to inch up from 52.6 to 52.8 in March.
Meanwhile, the more closely-watched IVEY PMI (Apr 4, 3:00 pm GMT) won’t come until later in the week when it’s expected to print at 51.4 from February’s 50.6 reading.
Recall that both reports weakened from January to February. If March’s numbers hint at better conditions for the manufacturing sector, then maybe traders won’t mind a bit of weakness in the next monthly GDP release.
Labor market data (Apr 5, 1:30 pm GMT)
On Friday Canada will join the U.S. NFP frenzy as it also releases its employment numbers for the month of February.
In last month’s release, we found out that the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%, its highest since October, as more laborers searched for work. A closer look told us that a net of 55,900 jobs were added for the month and that a majority of them were full-time positions.
Not surprisingly, the underlying strength in the details boosted the Loonie against its major counterparts.
This week, the unemployment rate is expected to maintain its 5.8% reading. Analysts are a bit more cautious, however, as they expect a pullback to the tune of 10,000 net decrease in employment on the back of businesses holding off from hiring amidst global trade uncertainties.
Still, Canada’s employment situation is expected to maintain its momentum. Keep close tabs on wage growth and participation rate in case the headline figures miss expectations!
Oil price movements
In the absence of bigger market-moving catalysts, the Loonie tends to take its cues from oil price movements.
This week keep close tabs in case Trump puts more pressure on OPEC and friends to “increase the flow of Oil” to keep prices down.
Word around is that OPEC and markets are reacting less and less to the Donald’s cues, so it’s possible that oil prices will continue its uptrend until the oil giants meet some time in June.
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for March 25 – 29!