Who’s ready to hear from the Fed members this week? Here are potential catalysts you shouldn’t miss out on over the next couple of days.
FOMC meeting minutes (Feb 20, 7:00 pm GMT)
As expected, Fed Governor Powell and his team kept their policies steady in January after raising their rates in December.
What market players didn’t expect was that the FOMC gang would remove hints of further rate hikes in their statement. They shared that (emphasis mine):
“In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.”
If that’s not dovish enough for you, Powell also emphasized in the presser that “[t]he case for raising rates has weakened somewhat…” Yikes!
This week’s release should shed more light on the Fed members’ concerns, and maybe throw us hints on their balance sheet plans in the foreseeable future.
A bunch of FOMC members are also scheduled to share their two cents on Friday, which would help clarify any points we need to know from the meeting minutes AND the Fed’s bi-annual monetary policy report scheduled for publishing on the same day.
Watch out what voting members Williams (3:15 pm and 10:30 pm GMT), Clarida (5:00 pm GMT), Bullard (6:30 pm GMT), and Quarles (6:30 pm GMT) and see what they have to say!
Durable goods orders (Feb 21, 1:30 pm GMT)
Traders watch Uncle Sam’s durable goods reports because buying long-term equipment hints at the manufacturers’ confidence on the economy. Since the report was delayed by the government shutdown, we’ll only get to see December’s numbers this week.
Analysts expect to see a 0.8% gain after November’s 0.7% growth. The core figure, which excludes volatile items such as aircraft and other transportation items, is expected to post a 0.2% uptick after seeing a 0.4% decline in the previous month.
While its releases don’t usually affect the dollar’s price action for long, strong hits or misses could influence its prices during the trading session.
The euro countries won’t be the only ones printing PMIs this week!
On Thursday from 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. will publish the Philly Fed manufacturing PMI for February. Then, at 2:45 pm GMT Markit will print its manufacturing and services PMIs for the same month.
Philadelphia’s report is expected to print slightly lower figures against its January release, but Markit’s releases are expected print either the same or better numbers for the month.
Worse-than-expected prints would support slowdown fears in the markets, while better-than-expected numbers could add to any optimism from U.S.-China trade updates coming our way this week. Stay glued to the tube, folks!
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for February 11 – 15!