Higher oil prices and a positive risk vibe helped the Loonie climb higher last week. Will we see retracements this week?
Retail sales (Feb 22, 1:30 pm GMT)
Lower gasoline prices and sales of motor vehicle and parts dragged retail activity lower last November. Retail sales fell by 0.9%, worse than the 0.6% decrease that analysts had expected and the 0.2% increase we saw in October.
This week, analysts expect to see 0.0% growth for the headline retail sales report. The core figure, which excludes auto sales, is expected to slip by another 0.5% after seeing a 0.6% dip in November.
Remember that November’s retail sales have often outperformed December’s numbers.
If this week’s releases fall short of analysts’ expectations, then retail activity in the last quarter could come in below even the Bank of Canada (BOC)’s modest 1.3% projections and drag the Loonie lower across the board.
Crude oil updates
If you’ve read my latest price action update, then you’ll know that updates from OPEC (and friends), Venezuela, and oil forecasts printed helped the Black Crack climb its 2019 highs last week.
Will we see retracements over the next couple of days?
Weaker auto sales in China weighed on the commodity earlier today, but the bulls will still have their chance if oil-related reports and global risk sentiment swing in crude oil’s favor.
Look out for updates on Venezuela’s leadership, which could determine how stable Venezuela’s oil production could be in the foreseeable future.
And then there are other market themes like global trade and Brexit updates that could influence risk appetite across high-yielding bets like commodities.
Don’t even think of missing any headlines!
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for February 11 – 15!