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Trading conditions were still relatively tight during today’s morning London session. However, there was more action since the Loonie encountered heavy selling pressure, likely because of NAFTA-related jitters.

The euro, meanwhile, grudgingly recovered during the course of the session after sustaining losses during the earlier Asian session.

  • German WPI m/m: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected, 0.3% previous
  • Euro Zone trade balance: €21.6B vs. €20.2B expected, €17.9B previous
  • New Zealand’s CPI report will be released later

Major Events/Reports

NAFTA rumors

A Bloomberg report that cited unnamed “officials familiar with the [NAFTA] negotiations” was released earlier during the session.

And according to this report, the parties involved (namely the U.S., Canada, and Mexico) likely won’t be able to come to a meeting of the minds by December of this year and that “talks are likely to drag on for months.”

Moreover, there is “essentially no progress on the most divisive U.S. proposals,” even as the fourth round of NAFTA talks are scheduled to resume later today.

Commodities rally some more

Commodities extended their gains from earlier, with base metals clearly outperforming.

The U.S. dollar index was actually up by 0.12% to 93.03 for the day when the morning London session ended. However, the stronger dollar didn’t really seem to scare buyers away.

And according to market analysts, the broad-based commodities rally was sustained because of continued optimism due to positive Chinese data.

With regard to oil specifically, some market analysts also pointed to the possibility of supply disruptions because of tensions in the Middle East.

Base metals were in high demand.

  • Copper was up by 2.69% to $3.221 per pound
  • Aluminum was up by 1.09% to $11,842.50 per dry metric ton

Precious metals managed to rake in some gains despite the risk-on vibes.

  • Gold was up by 0.27% to $1,308.11 per troy ounce
  • Silver was up by 0.33% to $17.468 per troy ounce

Oil benchmarks had a good run.

  • U.S. WTI crude oil was up by 1.44% to $52.19 per barrel
  • Brent crude oil was up by 1.78% to $58.19 per barrel

Risk-taking persists

The major European equity indices are starting the new trading week with some gains, so it looks like European traders are also in an optimistic mood today.

Aside from risk sentiment spillover from the earlier Asian session, market analysts also noted that mining shares outperformed, apparently because of the commodities rally.

However, market analysts also point out that Spanish shares lagged, likely because of lingering worries related to Catalonia.

  • The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.19% to 1,540.12
  • Germany’s DAX was still up by 0.18% to 13,017.00
  • The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.08% to 3,611.50

U.S. equity futures were also slightly in the green, so the risk-on party may also carry over into the upcoming U.S. session.

  • S&P 500 futures were up by 0.03% to 2,553.50
  • Nasdaq futures were up by 0.12% to 6,106.88

Major Market Mover(s):


The Loonie got kicked lower across the board during the morning London session, even though oil extended its gains. There were no economic reports, but Bloomberg did release a report talking about a potential delay in NAFTA talks. And that may have weighed on the Loonie.

After all, as discussed in last week’s recap, Trump did make some fresh demand while threatening to back out of NAFTA last week, which is supposedly why the Loonie was a net loser last week despite the oil rally.

USD/CAD was up by 60 pips (+0.49%) to 1.2538, NZD/CAD was up by 62 pips (+0.69%) to 0.9016, AUD/CAD was up by 40 pips (+0.41%) to 0.9868


After getting whupped during the earlier Asian session, the euro inched higher against all of its peers and was even the best-performing currency during the morning London session.

Aside from profit-taking, the only possible catalyst for the euro’s recovery was the Euro Zone’s bigger trade surplus. However, the euro was already on the move before the trade data was released (and even felt selling pressure when the report was released), so the recovery was unlikely due to that.

EUR/USD was up by 19 pips (+0.16%) to 1.1804, EUR/GBP was up by 6 pips (+0.06%) to 0.8878, EUR/CAD was up by 99 pips (+0.66%) to 1.4803

Watch Out For:

  • 12:30 pm GMT: Canada’s foreign security purchases ($20.05B expected, $23.95B previous)
  • 12:30 pm GMT: Empire State manufacturing index (20.5 expected, 24.4 previous)
  • 2:30 pm GMT: BOC will release its quarterly business outlook survey
  • 9:45 pm GMT: New Zealand’s quarterly CPI (0.4% expected, 0.0% previous)