So, the Kiwi was at the bottom of the forex heap last week. Will the bulls get their mojo back with this week’s catalysts?
Quarterly GDP report (June 19, 11:45 pm GMT)
New Zealand’s economy grew by 0.6% in Q4 2018, which was better than the 0.3% increase seen in Q3 2018 and matches analysts’ estimates.
Meanwhile, growth clocked in at 2.3% on an annualized basis. It was lower than the 2.6% uptick in Q3 and below traders’ expectations of a 2.5% gain.
The better-than-expected quarterly growth boosted the Kiwi across the board and for the rest of the Asian session, but global trade and geopolitical concerns eventually dictated market sentiment and dragged the high-yielding Kiwi lower.
This week analysts expect to see the economy maintain its 0.6% growth in Q1 2019, with its annualized figure improving from 2.3% to 2.4%.
Don’t bet the farm on seeing strong data, though! In fact, you shouldn’t be betting the farm in any scenario.
In this case, analysts point out that weak manufacturing, inflation, and consumer spending, it’s more likely that we’ll see disappointing numbers for the period.
And if we do see strong growth, RBNZ’s latest rate cut, global trade concerns, and worries of the need for easier monetary policies in the region could still keep the bulls from partying in the pip streets.
Market risk sentiment
Until we see New Zealand’s GDP report, the Kiwi could take cues from global risk sentiment and the moves of its major counterparts.
For example, scheduled statements and meeting minutes from the RBA, BOE, ECB, BOJ, and the Fed throughout the week could feed global trade worries and calls for easier policies.
And then there’s next week’s G20 meeting where Trump is likely to meet China’s Xi Jinping. If we see statements (read: tweets) that could increase trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, then we might see the high-yielding Kiwi trade lower across the board.
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for June 10 – 14!