Can the Aussie prevent another slow and steady downtrend against its major counterparts? Check out this week’s potential market movers!
RBA’s meeting minutes (June 18, 2:30 am GMT)
Earlier this month the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to a fresh record low of 1.25%. That’s the first interest rate change in 30 months, yo!
While the initial decision didn’t cause much ruckus on the Aussie’s price action (it was already priced in), the central bank’s continued concern over domestic consumption and hints of further easing kept pressure on the Aussie for most of the week.
Let’s see if the meeting minutes can paint us a clearer picture. Watch out for clues on how worried the RBA is over the future of household consumption, and how willing the members are in easing their rates further in the foreseeable future.
If the meeting minutes doesn’t give enough clues, then you might want to wait for Governor Lowe’s speech in Adelaide, where he’s slated to talk about labor markets and spare capacity. Exciting stuff!
Manufacturing and services PMIs (June 21, 12:00 am GMT)
Near the end of the week Australia will print its manufacturing and services PMIs for the month of June.
Take note that the manufacturing PMI has been on a slow and steady downtrend since the start of the year. The services PMI doesn’t look too good either, as it floats around the contractionary 50.0 reading.
Keep your eyes peeled for big hits or misses, as well as identifiable trends that might influence the RBA’s policymaking down the road.
Global risk sentiment
The RBA isn’t the only central bank making waves this week!
If you look at your forex calendars, you’ll see that major central banks such as the BOE, ECB, BOJ, and the Fed have statements or pressers scheduled throughout the week.
Aside from their actual policy decisions, take a closer look at what the major central bankers have to say. How are global trade and economic slowdown concerns affecting their decision? More importantly, how willing are they to alter their current policies to adjust to their biases?
And then there’s the G20 meeting coming up next week. Word around is that the Donald is getting ready to talk to China’s Xi Jinping.
If we see increased possibility of a trade deal between the world’s largest economies, then we could see high-yielding currencies like the Aussie shoot higher across the board.
But if we see more tension ahead of the meeting, or the possibility that we won’t see a trade deal with teeth and solid plans, then global trade concerns could continue to weigh on the comdoll.
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for June 10 – 14!