It’s gonna be an exciting week for pound pairs as the U.K. jobs report is due, followed by the BOE’s monetary policy decision.
Will the central bank pump up their easing efforts?
Here’s what sterling traders should watch out for:
Employment data (June 16, 7:00 am GMT)
- May claimant count to increase by 370K after earlier 856.5K gain
- Average earnings index likely dipped from 2.4% to 1.4% in the three-month period ending in April
- Unemployment rate projected to climb from 3.9% to 4.7%
Inflation reports (June 17, 7:00 am GMT)
- Headline CPI likely fell from 0.8% to 0.5% in May
- Core CPI expected to have dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% in the same month
- Producer input prices probably rebounded by 2.2% after earlier 5.1% slide
- Producer output prices likely stayed flat after earlier 0.7% drop
- Retail price index probably fell from 1.5% to 1.2%
Retail sales (June 19, 7:00 am GMT)
- Consumer spending probably recovered by 6.3% in May after earlier 18.1% slump
- Leading indicators such as BRC retail sales monitor indicated a slight rebound in May consumer spending
BOE decision & MPC minutes (June 18, 12:00 pm GMT)
- No actual changes to 0.10% interest rate expected for now
- Asset purchases could be increased by 100 billion GBP from 645 billion GBP to 745 billion GBP
- Larger than expected increase could be possible as last week’s April GDP release came far below expectations
- MPC likely to vote unanimously to keep rates on hold while two policymakers dissent to asset purchases increase
- Members Haskel and Saunders already voted to boost asset purchases in earlier policy decision
- Brexit talks could take the back seat in terms of driving pound price action this week since there are a couple of bigger catalysts lined up
- Still, the prospect of a “No-Deal Brexit” in the U.K. can limit risk-taking for London session traders
- Pound pairs are giving mixed signals based on stochastic, with most still hanging around neutral territory.
- GBP/CAD is nearing the overbought zone while GBP/NZD is approaching the oversold region.
- Short-term trend strength analysis also paints a mixed picture, with EUR/GBP on bullish grounds and the rest mostly in bearish territory.
- In particular, GBP/NZD, GBP/CHF, and GBP/JPY are deep in the sell zone while GBP/AUD has a weakening bearish trend.
Missed last week’s price action? Read GBP’s price recap for June 8 – 12!