No major news from Canada this week, which means the Loonie’s price action will take its cues from risk sentiment again.
Which catalysts should you watch out for?
I’ve got a list for ya!
Lower-tier economic data
- Manufacturing sales (June 15, 12:30 pm GMT) could have worsened (-9.2% to -18.7% in April)
- Monthly CPI (June 17, 12:30 pm GMT) could improve from -0.7% to 0.7% though BOC is expected to look beyond consumer price increases for the time being
- Retail sales (June 19, 12:30 pm GMT) seen at -14.0% while the core figure could print at -7.3% in April
Oil price movements
- Canada is one of the world’s biggest crude oil exporters so the Loonie tends to directly correlate to oil price action
- The Black Crack broke its six-week winning streak as traders worried that the reduction in global output is slowing down at a time when the recovery of demand is threatened by rising COVID-19 cases
Market risk sentiment
- Optimism over global economic recovery and concerns over the second wave of viral infections will continue to influence CAD’s intraweek trends
- Policy decisions by the BOJ, SNB, and BOE, as well as Powell’s speeches in the next few days, can support or curb the demand for high-yielding comdolls like the Loonie
- Signs of increasing tensions between the U.S. and China could also reduce risk-taking in the markets
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic is flagging the Loonie’s “oversold” conditions against the pound and Kiwi
- Daily EMAs are confirming CAD’s short and long-term bearish trends against NZD, EUR, and CHF
- CAD’s downtrends against USD and JPY are seeing weaknesses around the 50 EMA
- The Loonie is still on a bullish trend against the pound
- The Loonie saw the most volatility against the safe havens and the Aussie in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read CAD’s price recap for June 8 – 12!
