Major Currencies Overview
First up, here’s a rundown of how the major pairs performed in the past week:
Several medium-tier reports and leading indicators are up for release from the U.S. economy this week, possibly taking the spotlight away from sentiment and shifting it to fundamentals. Read more.
The monthly GDP report is the only top-tier release from Canada, although the current account balance and RMPI figures might also be worth watching. Other than that, crude oil trends and risk appetite could also push the Loonie around. Read more.
EUR & CHF
The euro zone’s schedule is chock-full of low to mid-tier reports this week, including the German Ifo business climate index and preliminary CPI, while the franc also has a couple of minor catalysts to look out for. Read more.
There are no economic reports lined up from the U.K. economy this time, leaving only the speeches by MPC members Haldane and Cunliffe as the main movers. Read more.
Japan’s economic calendar is absolutely empty this week, which leaves yen pairs extra sensitive to overall market sentiment. As it is, coronavirus outbreak fears still have some impact on risk appetite these days. Read more.
The Aussie saw serious losses against its counterparts last week. Can the bears sustain the pressure with China’s PMIs and Australia’s quarterly expenditure report due? Read more.
Overall risk aversion dragged NZD lower across the board last week. Will this week’s retail sales, trade balance, and ANZ business confidence report change all that? Read more.
Charts to Watch:
First up is this break-and-retest situation on the 4-hour time frame of EUR/JPY. Price has pulled up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest slide, and this lines up with a broken support area that could hold as a ceiling.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside while stochastic is indicating exhaustion among buyers. If any of the Fibs keep gains in check, price could resume the slide to the swing low next.
This pair is forming lower highs and lower lows to trade inside a descending channel on its 1-hour time frame. Price is currently testing support and could be due for a pullback to the top.
The Fib tool also shows nearby potential resistance levels. In particular, the 38.2% level is close to the mid-channel area of interest at .6670 while the 61.8% Fib is near the channel top.
Stochastic is just turning higher after indicating oversold conditions, so buyers could take over from here. However, the 100 SMA just crossed below the 200 SMA to indicate that bearish momentum is about to pick up and possibly lead to a channel breakdown.
Here’s another break-and-retest play for y’all!
EUR/AUD recently busted through its double bottom neckline to signal that a reversal from the downtrend is underway. Price is retreating from the 1.6286 level, though, and could be due for a retest of the area of interest spanned by the Fib levels.
After all, stocahstic is starting to move south from the overbought zone, so price could follow suit as sellers take over. The 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA, but the gap between the indicators is narrowing to signal weakening selling pressure.