Major Currencies Overview
The Greenback had one of its better runs last week, although it continued to toss and turn to counter currency factors and changing market sentiment.
It’s NFP week again, so the focus could be on whether or not the jobs market can recover from the earlier disappointment. Before all that, though, risk sentiment could push dollar pairs around for the most part of the week. Read more.
It was a pretty quiet week for the Canadian dollar in terms of economic catalysts, leaving the Loonie at the mercy of crude oil prices and counter currency direction.
This might also be the case for this week as the only major reports to watch out for from Canada are its jobs figures due on Friday. Read more.
EUR & CHF
The euro crawled mostly lower for the week as more and more data points highlighted the slowdown in the region. Meanwhile, the franc had a mixed round despite SNB commentary that the currency remains overvalued.
Flash CPI readings and the ECB minutes are up for release this time, with the latter possibly highlighting reasons why the central bank could maintain a dovish stance. Read more.
It was a really eventful week for the Brits as government officials scrambled to come up with options to avoid a “no deal” Brexit but still failed.
Industry PMI readings are up for release and might provide some respite from the political chaos, but another round of Brexit drama would likely keep pound gains in check. Read more.
The yen had a net negative week as it fell victim to counter currency moves and risk-taking. It didn’t help that medium-tier Japanese data disappointed, too!
Only a couple of Tankan reports are lined up from Japan this week, which leaves sentiment and global bond yields as the main driver of yen price action again. Read more.
The Aussie had a strong run as it got a boost from upbeat remarks by RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis. Now this kind of optimism is pretty rare these days, which is probably why AUD bulls charged early on.
There are plenty of events on Australia’s docket this coming week, with the RBA statement due, followed by retail sales and trade balance data. Read more.
The Kiwi was off to a solid start but took a knockout punch from the RBNZ when the central bank hinted that it could cut rates within the year. Yikes!
There are no major releases from New Zealand this week so there could be some carryover action from the previous one, unless of course risk appetite surges. Read more.
Charts to Watch:
It’s a break-and-retest opportunity fellas! AUD/CAD seems to be finding support at the area of interest and rising trend line visible on the 1-hour time frame.
If the bounce keeps up, price could aim for the next upside targets shown by the Fibonacci extension tool. The 61.8% level lines up with the swing high around .9560 and might be the first take-profit point while the full extension is all the way up to .9622.
This pair already has a bit of momentum sustaining the trend as price bounced off the descending channel resistance and is testing the mid-channel area of interest.
However, stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions and turning higher could allow buying pressure to take EUR/NZD back to the channel top. A continuation of the slide below the 1.6450 minor psychological mark could put it on track towards hitting the channel bottom closer to 1.6200.
Here’s one for the swing traders out there! GBP/AUD seems to be in pullback mode and might be setting its sights on the bottom of the daily ascending channel near the 61.8% Fib and 1.7850 minor psychological mark.
A shallow pullback could already find support at the middle of the channel that’s closer to the 38.2% level and 1.8200 mark. Stochastic is heading lower but dipping into the oversold region to signal that sellers might be exhausted soon.