Major Currencies Overview
Dollar pairs have had quite an exciting start to the year as the first week of January had big fireworks here and there.
The attention would likely be fixed on the mid-level trade talks set to take place between the U.S. and China later in the week as market watchers are hungry for updates since the 90-day truce was started. Read more.
The Loonie was able to snag some gains from stronger than expected jobs data last Friday, but it remains to be seen if it can hold on to these winnings.
This week has the BOC interest rate decision on the docket, and traders are hoping to get more clues on future policy moves. No actual rate changes are expected this time. Read more.
EUR & CHF
A handful of medium-tier economic reports are scattered throughout the week for the euro zone, but the main event would likely be the release of the ECB minutes.
Meanwhile, the Swiss franc could also take some cues from low-tier reports, although it seems more plausible that risk sentiment could be the main driving factor. Read more.
Just one week to go before the parliament vote on the Brexit deal! Will it be postponed again? Or can PM May pull enough support to see it through?
Apart from Brexit-related drama as debates take place this week, the British pound also has to watch out for BOE head honcho Carney’s comments in an online Q&A forum and for the U.K. monthly GDP report due later in the week. Read more.
What’s up with that major yen rally last week? And are there any chances of this happening again this week?
Several medium-tier reports are lined up from Japan in the coming days, but yen pairs might keep waiting for directional clues from overall risk sentiment again as U.S. and China gear up for trade talks. Read more.
There are a couple of top-tier reports from the Land Down Under, namely trade balance and retail sales, that are worth watching if you’re trading the Aussie this week.
However, the bigger catalyst is likely to be the buzz on the mid-level trade talks set to take place between U.S. and Chinese officials later in the week. Any signs of progress after the previously announced 90-day truce could be positive for the Aussie. Read more.
It’s gonna be a data-light week for the Kiwi as only low-tier sentiment reports are on the docket.
However, the Kiwi tends to take cues from risk sentiment and dollar direction, which means that U.S. events and trade-related updates could still do a number on the currency. Read more.
Charts to Watch:
First up is this neat descending channel visible on the long-term chart of NZD/CAD. Price is just coming off a bounce from the top and has plenty of room to head further south, possibly until the mid-channel area of interest or all the way to the channel bottom at the .8300 handle.
Be careful, though, since stochastic is dipping close to the oversold region to signal exhaustion. Turning higher could lead to another test of resistance, so make sure you set your stops right if you’re shorting soon.
Here’s another channel and potential trend play on GBP/CAD! The pair is trending higher in an ascending channel and is down to the mid-channel area of interest.
Stochastic is turning higher to signal that a bounce is due while buyers take over, but a break below the 1.7000 mark could set off a deeper pullback to the channel bottom around 1.6700.
Last but certainly not least is this textbook break-and-retest setup on the 4-hour chart of GBP/AUD. Price previously busted through the resistance around 1.7800 before retreating from the swing high to 1.8300.
The former resistance and potential support is spanned by the 61.8% to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Stochastic is sliding into oversold territory and moving back up could confirm that support is about to hold and that a climb back to the swing high and beyond is in order.