Canada is in for a data-heavy trading week that includes the BOC’s policy statement. What can you expect from these events? More importantly, how will the Loonie react to them?
IVEY PMI (Jan. 7, 3:00 pm GMT)
The IVEY PMI – arguably the most closely-watched PMI report in Canada – fell from 61.8 to 57.2 in November. That’s also weaker than the 59.1 reading that analysts had expected!
Unfortunately for the Loonie, forex bears were already busy pricing in not-so-upbeat remarks from the central bank and a delay in OPEC’s meeting statement at the time.
This week, traders are counting on the PMI to improve to 58.1 in December. Since Canada won’t be printing other reports, it’s likely that this month’s release will get more reaction from the market players.
Trade balance (Jan. 8, 1:30 pm GMT)
Canada’s trade deficit clocked in at 1.17B CAD in October, wider than the upwardly revised 0.89B CAD and the 0.7B CAD deficit that people had expected.
Both exports and imports showed weaknesses. Exports declined for a third straight month (this time by 1.2%) thanks to lower crude oil sales.Meanwhile, shipments to Canada dipped by 0.6% – its fourth decrease in five months – on the back of fewer purchases of passenger cars and light trucks.
This week, traders expect the deficit to widen to about 2.05B CAD for the month of November.
Take note that Uncle Sam is also set to print its own trade numbers at the same time as Canada, so reaction from the report might get mixed up with overall market sentiment during the release.
BOC’s policy decision (Jan. 9, 3:00 pm GMT)
Will the Bank of Canada (BOC) stick to its neutral stance? Many believe so. They expect Governor Poloz and his team to stick to its 1.75% interest rate this week.
And why not? Oil prices dropped more sharply than most central banks have expected; Canada’s tight labor market has yet to translate to higher wages and consumer prices, and the U.S.-China trade war brought uncertainty in the markets. Heck, even the Fed is showing signs of slowing down its tightening schedule!
Fortunately, the BOC will also publish a monetary policy report along with its monthly statements. Not only that, but Poloz will also have a chance to explain their points during a presser conducted fifteen minutes after the decision is released.
Stick around for these releases in case they inspire volatile moves for the Loonie!