EUR & CHF Weekly Forecast – Second Wave and Brexit Concerns

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The euro is in for a busy week as ECB’s Lagarde takes center stage and Brexit talks heat up.

I’ve got a list of potential market movers that might affect the euro in the next few days.

Read up!

Lagarde’s speeches

Last week European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank will follow the Fed’s footsteps in letting inflation overshoot its targets for a while
The head honcho will speak in an online CEO Summit hosted by the Wall Street Journal (Oct 6, 8:35 am GMT)
Lagarde will also participate in a panel discussion (Oct 6, 1:00 pm GMT) and an online forum (Oct 7, 12:10 pm GMT)

As the region’s largest economy, EUR traders pay attention to Germany’s growth and activity indicators
Final Markit services (49.1 from 52.5) and composite (53.7 from 54.4) to be revised lower?
Factory orders (Oct 6, 6:00 am GMT) to gain by 2.3% after a 2.8% growth in July
Industrial production (Oct 7, 6:00 am GMT) to print 1.8% increase after 1.2% uptick in July
Trade surplus (Oct 8, 6:00 am GMT) to tighten from 18B EUR to 17.1B EUR?

Progress on a Brexit deal would push EUR and GBP higher against their counterparts
Second wave of COVID-19 infections and shutdown concerns will continue to limit the euro’s gains
Trump’s COVID-19 infection and the U.S. VP debates can also influence EUR’s intraweek trends

Switzerland isn’t printing top-tier news this week but last week’s report about the Swiss National Bank (SNB) spending 90B CHF in H1 2020 should limit CHF’s gains
Watch out for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, which could move on U.S. election and Eurozone second wave headlines

CHF lost value against its fellow safe havens in the last 30 days
The franc gained the most against the pound and the comdolls during the time period