The euro is in for a busy week as ECB’s Lagarde takes center stage and Brexit talks heat up.
I’ve got a list of potential market movers that might affect the euro in the next few days.
- Last week European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank will follow the Fed’s footsteps in letting inflation overshoot its targets for a while
- The head honcho will speak in an online CEO Summit hosted by the Wall Street Journal (Oct 6, 8:35 am GMT)
- Lagarde will also participate in a panel discussion (Oct 6, 1:00 pm GMT) and an online forum (Oct 7, 12:10 pm GMT)
Germany’s economic releases
- As the region’s largest economy, EUR traders pay attention to Germany’s growth and activity indicators
- Final Markit services (49.1 from 52.5) and composite (53.7 from 54.4) to be revised lower?
- Factory orders (Oct 6, 6:00 am GMT) to gain by 2.3% after a 2.8% growth in July
- Industrial production (Oct 7, 6:00 am GMT) to print 1.8% increase after 1.2% uptick in July
- Trade surplus (Oct 8, 6:00 am GMT) to tighten from 18B EUR to 17.1B EUR?
Overall appetite for EUR
- Progress on a Brexit deal would push EUR and GBP higher against their counterparts
- Second wave of COVID-19 infections and shutdown concerns will continue to limit the euro’s gains
- Trump’s COVID-19 infection and the U.S. VP debates can also influence EUR’s intraweek trends
CHF: eyes on USD and EUR
- Switzerland isn’t printing top-tier news this week but last week’s report about the Swiss National Bank (SNB) spending 90B CHF in H1 2020 should limit CHF’s gains
- Watch out for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, which could move on U.S. election and Eurozone second wave headlines
- SMAs are showing EUR/AUD’s short and long-term bearish trends
- EUR remains above the 200 SMA against all but JPY on the daily time frame
- EUR was most volatile against GBP, JPY, and the comdolls in the last seven days
- CHF lost value against its fellow safe havens in the last 30 days
- The franc gained the most against the pound and the comdolls during the time period
- SMAs show CHF’s short and long-term bearish trend against NZD
- Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities on AUD/CHF and CAD/CHF