Mostly choppy, sideways action for both the euro and franc this week as traders balanced a slew of catalysts and themes, including uncertainty with Brexit and coronavirus cases, mixed economic updates from Europe, and counter currency flows.
The Euro
Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
ECB Should Maintain Significant Monetary Stimulus, De Cos Says
ECB’s Visco says euro’s strength is a worry
Britain, EU start key week of Brexit talks with ‘better mood music’
EU says positions on Brexit ‘far apart’, talks must quicken
Germany to issue 6 billion euros more debt than planned in fourth quarter due to coronavirus
ECB Officials Ready for Clash of Clans on Next Stimulus Move
Tuesday:
German expected inflation rate for September 2020: -0.2%
Spanish flash CPI estimate for September: -0.4% y/y
Spain extends COVID furlough scheme to January
Wednesday:
German employment up 0.0% m/m in August 2020
German Retail turnover in August 2020: 3.1% m/m
French consumer spending climbs in August as shoppers splurge in sales
Italian CPI in September 2020: -0.6% m/m, -0.5% y/y
German unemployment rises +0.1% to 6.4%
ECB to Consider Inflation Overshoot in Echo of Fed Strategy
Thursday:
In August 2020, Industrial producer prices were up by 0.1% m/m in euro area; Up by 0.2% m/m in EU
Euro area unemployment at 8.1%; EU at 7.4%
Marginal growth in Spanish manufacturing sector in September
French manufacturing output continues to recover during September
Germany Manufacturing PMI climbs to 26-month high, showing recovery still firmly on course
Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years
Euro zone banks must brace for profit hit: ECB
UK-EU trade talks conducted in constructive spirit, says UK PM’s spokesman
Continued euro strength could hurt growth, slow inflation: Commission
EU’s Barnier says Brexit divorce deal an ‘absolute priority’ for EU
Friday:
Euro zone inflation will remain negative this year: ECB’ de Guindos
Euro area annual inflation down to -0.3%
Spain’s labour market improves despite new COVID-19 wave
EU wants Brexit deal, but not at any price, says Commission chief
Mid-October still goal for EU trade deal, says UK PM’s spokesman
The Swiss Franc
Headlines and Economic data
Through Monday and Tuesday, there weren’t many moments of uniform moves between Swiss franc pairs, and with risk sentiment broadly leaning positive (we saw a technical rebound in risk assets after last week’s global market sell off), it’s likely the franc’s price action was mostly dominated by counter currency flows.
Wednesday:
Swiss leading indicator hits 10-year high as rebound continues
SNB Quarterly Bulletin Q3 2020:
- Swiss National Bank maintains expansionary monetary policy
- The inflation forecast for the current year remains negative (– 0.6%)
- GDP is set to shrink by around 5% in 2020, the biggest decline since the crisis in the mid-1970s.
- Between the assessments of June and September 2020, sight deposits at the SNB averaged CHF 695.9 billion.
- The real external value of the Swiss franc is still high.
Thursday:
Swiss retail trade grew by 1.6% m/m in August 2020
Swiss Consumer prices remained stable in September
Swiss PMI September 2020: Labor market situation remains tense despite dynamic recovery
Friday:
The Swiss franc popped higher during the Asia session as traders ran to safety after U.S. President Trump’s announcement on Twitter that he and the First Lady contracted COVID-19, increasing the uncertainty of the upcoming U.S. Presidential election.
