The euro and franc danced to the tune of risk sentiment and countercurrency flows last week.
Will this week’s releases inspire directional trading for the European currencies?
Here’s a shortlist of potential catalysts to watch out for:
Manufacturing and services PMIs
- Germany is expected to confirm the manufacturing PMI’s improvement from 51.0 to 53.0 in August
- No changes expected from France’s manufacturing PMI dipping from 52.4 to 49.0
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI expected to maintain its 51.7 reading in August
- Spain’s manufacturing PMI to dip from 53.5 to 52.5?
- Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI to reach an expansionary state in August
- Spain’s services PMI expected to weaken from 51.9 to 48.0
- No changes expected from Germany (50.8), France (51.9), and Euro Zone’s (50.1) initial services PMI readings in August
Germany’s closely watched releases
- As the region’s biggest economy, trends in Germany can hint at other economy’s performances
- CPI (Aug 31, London session) is expected to stagnate in August
- Unemployment (Sept 1, 7:55 am GMT) to reflect another 10,000 net job loss
- Retail sales (Sept 2, 6:00 am GMT) expected to gain by 0.5% in July
- Factory orders (Sept 4, 6:00 am GMT) to slow down from 27.9% to 5.9%?
Broad risk sentiment
- Vaccine and stimulus updates will continue to affect EUR and CHF’s intraweek trends
- U.S. NFP headlines can also turn the focus on CHF as a safe haven
- Stochastic is flagging the euro’s “oversold” conditions against NZD, AUD, and EUR
- EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD are also near the “oversold” territory
- Daily EMAs are reflecting EUr/JPY, EUR/USD, and EUR/CHF’s short and long-term bullish trends
- EUR/NZD and EUR/GBP are trading below its shorter-term EMAs
- Stochastic considers the franc “oversold” against the Aussie, Kiwi, and the pound on the daily time frame
- CHF was most volatile against AUD, NZD, and its fellow safe havens in the last seven days