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The euro and franc danced to the tune of risk sentiment and countercurrency flows last week.

Will this week’s releases inspire directional trading for the European currencies?

Here’s a shortlist of potential catalysts to watch out for:

Manufacturing and services PMIs

  • Germany is expected to confirm the manufacturing PMI’s improvement from 51.0 to 53.0 in August
  • No changes expected from France’s manufacturing PMI dipping from 52.4 to 49.0
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI expected to maintain its 51.7 reading in August
  • Spain’s manufacturing PMI to dip from 53.5 to 52.5?
  • Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI to reach an expansionary state in August
  • Spain’s services PMI expected to weaken from 51.9 to 48.0
  • No changes expected from Germany (50.8), France (51.9), and Euro Zone’s (50.1) initial services PMI readings in August

Germany’s closely watched releases

  • As the region’s biggest economy, trends in Germany can hint at other economy’s performances
  • CPI (Aug 31, London session) is expected to stagnate in August
  • Unemployment (Sept 1, 7:55 am GMT) to reflect another 10,000 net job loss
  • Retail sales (Sept 2, 6:00 am GMT) expected to gain by 0.5% in July
  • Factory orders (Sept 4, 6:00 am GMT) to slow down from 27.9% to 5.9%?

Broad risk sentiment

  • Vaccine and stimulus updates will continue to affect EUR and CHF’s intraweek trends
  • U.S. NFP headlines can also turn the focus on CHF as a safe haven

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic is flagging the euro’s “oversold” conditions against NZD, AUD, and EUR
  • EUR/CHF and EUR/CAD are also near the “oversold” territory
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Daily EMAs are reflecting EUr/JPY, EUR/USD, and EUR/CHF’s short and long-term bullish trends
  • EUR/NZD and EUR/GBP are trading below its shorter-term EMAs
EUR Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • EUR has seen the most volatility against the comdolls and the yen in the last seven days
EUR Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
  • Stochastic considers the franc “oversold” against the Aussie, Kiwi, and the pound on the daily time frame
CHF Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
CHF Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • CHF was most volatile against AUD, NZD, and its fellow safe havens in the last seven days
CHF Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
CHF Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read EUR & CHF’s price recap for August 24 – 28!