AUD Weekly Forecast – RBA and GDP Releases on Tap

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Aussie traders are in for a busy week!

With the RBA and GDP releases scheduled, you’ll definitely want to keep your eyes peeled for intraweek trends.

Check out this list of potential catalysts that might move the comdoll!

RBA’s statement (Sept 1, 4:30 am GMT)

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates at 0.25% in July
Governor Lowe and his team maintained that the economic downturn “will not be as severe as earlier thought,” but also ended its three-month break to buy more government bonds
The Aussie didn’t react much to the news. However, the report enabled AUD to extend its intraday gains brought on by better-than-expected data printed earlier in the day
Markets don’t expect policy changes from RBA this week

GDP dipped from a 0.5% growth to -0.3% as the economy dealt with bushfires, drought, and the COVID-19 pandemic in Q1 2020
The softer-than-expected contraction in Q1 2020 boosted AUD until weak PMI reports during the London session soured risk sentiment
Analysts see the economy plummeting by 6.2% in Q2 2020 with the annual growth falling from +1.4% to -5.5% as the country imposed lockdowns

Company operating profits jumped by 15.0% in Q2 2020
AIG manufacturing index (Aug 31, 10:30 pm GMT) to dip from 53.5 to 52.9 in August
AIG construction index (Sept 2, 10:30 pm GMT) seen improving from 42.7 to 43.0
AIG services index (Sept 4, 10:30 pm GMT) last printed at 44.0
Building permits (Sept 1, 1:30 am GMT) to see a 1.9% decrease after a 4.9% drop in June
Trade balance (Sept 3, 1:30 am GMT) to reflect a tighter surplus in July
Retail sales (Sept 4, 1:30 am GMT) could see faster retail buying in July

China is one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, so AUD traders look to China’s releases to gauge potential future demand for Australia’s exports
China’s manufacturing PMI edges down in August
Growth in China’s services sector accelerates in August
Caixin’s manufacturing PMI (Sept 1, 1:45 am GMT) seen edging lower (from 52.8 to 52.4) in August
Caixin’s services PMI (Sept 3, 1:45 am GMT) to dip from 54.1 to 53.7?

RSI reflects AUD’s “overbought” conditions against USD, JPY, and EUR on the daily time frame

EMAs are showing the Aussie’s short and long-term bullish trends against ALL of its major counterparts

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, and AUD/CAD were the most volatile Aussie pairs in the last sevend days