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The euro slid lower against its forex counterparts on account of downbeat mid-tier data and worsening outbreak numbers last week. Any chance to bounce this time?

Low-tier euro zone data

  • German factory orders (Apr. 6, 7:00 am GMT) to show 2.7% slump after earlier 5.5% gain
  • Euro zone Sentix investor confidence index (Apr. 6, 9:30 am GMT) to slip from -17.1 to -30.5 in April
  • German industrial production (Apr. 7, 7:00 am GMT) to drop by 0.7% in February
  • French industrial production (Apr. 10, 7:45 am GMT) to show flat reading in February

SNB foreign currency reserves (Apr. 7, 8:00 am GMT)

  • Total value of foreign currency reserves held by the central bank
  • A large jump in value could signal forex intervention to keep CHF weak.
  • Reading rose from 764B CHF to 769B CHF in February.

ECB meeting minutes (Apr. 9, 12:30 pm GMT)

  • Transcript of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent monetary policy meeting
  • Central bank has been aggressive in increasing measures that could limit the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy.
  • ECB announced additional LTROs to provide immediate liquidity for banks and stands ready to add more if needed.

Overall market sentiment

  • Market watchers have been more focused on coronavirus-related updates, as well as stimulus efforts, that impact risk-taking.
  • The euro and franc tend to benefit from safe-haven flows as traders steer clear of the U.S. dollar.
  • However, a rising number of fatalities in Europe could keep gains in check.
  • Group of EMU finance ministers to present heads of state with options to help manage the fiscal repercussions of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic suggests that a number of euro pairs are oversold or in bullish territory.
EUR Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • In particular, the shared currency is looking bullish against the commodity currencies and sterling.
  • As for CHF pairs, Williams %R reveals that most are in overbought territory, except for CHF/JPY, USD/CHF, and EUR/CHF.
CHF Pairs Williams %R from MarketMilk
CHF Pairs Williams %R from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Make sure you check out the EUR & CHF Weekly Review for Mar. 30 -Apr. 3!