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Will the Aussie see another round of risk aversion this week? Or will the RBA’s decision help the comdoll gain back some pips?

Here are market events to watch if you’re trading AUD this week:

RBA’s policy announcement (Apr 7, 4:30 am GMT)

  • As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its rates by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.25% in March
  • The rate cut came on top of RBA’s out-of-schedule rate cut and QE plans launched since the coronavirus pandemic has blown up
  • Markets aren’t expecting policy changes OR specific forward guidance from RBA this week, as policymakers have expressed “uncertainty” and the need to focus on their current stimulus programs
  • Watch out for clues how grave and how long RBA expects the pandemic to affect Australia’s economy

Lower-tier releases

  • ANZ’s job ads (Apr 6, 1:30 am GMT) could drop by 2.9% after a 0.7% gain in February
  • Trade balance (Apr 7, 1:30 am GMT) is expected to narrow down from 5.21B AUD to 3.75B AUD in February
  • Home loans (Apr 8, 1:30 am GMT) to dip from 4.6% to 2.0%?

China’s CPI and PPI reports (Apr 10, 1:30 am GMT)

    • Consumer prices rose by 5.2% from a year earlier in February, a bit lower than the 5.4% uptick seen in January
    • Difficulties from manufacturers have limited supply, but lower demand has kept a lid on rising prices
    • CPI is expected to slow down further from 5.2% to 4.5% in March
  • Producer price index (PPI) dipped by 0.4% from a year ago in February (from -0.1% in January) as COVID-19 hit business activity
  • PPI’s decline could accelerate from -0.4% to -1.1% in March

Technical snapshot

  • AUD has seen the most losses against USD, CAD, and JPY in the last seven days
  • AUD has lost by less than 1.0% against NZD, EUR, and CHF

  • AUD is still on downtrends against USD and CAD
  • Watch out for retracement or reversal opportunities against NZD, EUR, CHF, GBP, and JPY

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for March 30 – April 3!