EUR & CHF Weekly Forecast (Mar. 23 – 27)

Both the euro and franc still managed to score some risk-off gains last week as traders were focused on COVID-19 updates. Can this carry on?

Flash PMI readings (Mar. 24, starting 9:15 am GMT)

• Reading above 50.0 reflects industry expansion, below 50.0 signals contraction
• French flash manufacturing PMI to fall from 52.5 to 39.6
• French flash services PMI to drop from 49.8 to 39.4
• German flash manufacturing PMI to slip from 48.0 to 40.1
• German flash services PMI to tumble from 52.5 to 43.0
• Euro zone flash manufacturing PMI to fall from 49.2 to 40.1
• Euro zone flash services PMI to drop from 52.6 to 40.0

Overall market sentiment

• Market participants are paying close attention to stimulus efforts in each major economy to gauge if things might get worse or not.
• Risk-off flows stemming from a huge jump in confirmed cases and fatalities tend to benefit the lower-yielding franc and euro.

Technical snapshot

• Long-term trend strength analysis shows that most euro pairs are still looking bullish.

• Only EUR/CHF, EUR/USD, and EUR/JPY are in bearish territory.
• Stochastic shows that most CHF pairs are looking bullish, with the exception of the overbought USD/CHF.

Missed last week’s price action? Make sure you check out the EUR & CHF Weekly Review for Mar. 16 – 20!