AUD Weekly Forecast (Mar. 23 – 27)

RBA’s big moves translated to monster (read: horrific) price action for the Aussie last week. Can this week’s catalysts provide some relief?

Markit PMIs (Mar 23, 10:00 pm GMT)

• Manufacturing PMI edged higher from 49.6 to 49.80 in February though business conditions, output, and employment saw further deterioration
• Services PMI dropped to contractionary territory (50.6 to 48.4) as new business and employment eased
• The weaker-than-expected readings, along with a disappointing labor market report, dragged AUD lower across the board

Market risk appetite

• China’s industrial profits (Mar 27, 1:30 am GMT) will be the only notable data release from China
• Updates on the local and global COVID-19 cases, how policymakers react, and how analysts see the global economy going forward will continue to affect AUD’s price action
• Other major economies are also printing their PMI reports, which could inspire volatility for the high-yielding Aussie

Technical snapshot

• Keltner channels are flagging AUD’s “oversold” status against CHF and USD on the daily time frame

• AUD is on a bearish track, with AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD, and AUD/NZD firmly on “bearish” territory while EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are “bullish” against the 50 and 200 SMAs

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for March 16 – 20!