CAD Weekly Forecast – Monthly GDP on Tap

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There aren’t a lot of data releases scheduled in Canada, so traders will likely focus on the monthly GDP and BOC members’ speeches.

Looking to trade the comdoll this week?

Here are the important points you should pay attention to:

Monthly GDP (Aug 28, 12:30 pm GMT)

Canada’s GDP bounced back in May, but it was still 15% below where it was before COVID-19
A surprisingly strong GDP helped sustain CAD’s intraday rally at the time
Analysts see the GDP at 5.0% (from 4.5%) in June. Annualized growth is expected to plunge from -8.2% to -38.0% for the month

BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri (Aug 25, 5:30 pm GMT) will talk about “Understanding the gap: the difference between perceived and measured inflation”
BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins (Aug 26, 2:00 pm GMT) will deliver the opening remarks at the BOC’s Monetary Policy Framework Workshop
BOC Governor Tiff Macklem (Aug 27, 3:15 pm GMT) will participate in a (virtual) panel discussion in this week’s Jackson Hole meetings

CAD reacts to crude oil prices because the Black Crack is one of Canada’s biggest exports
Rising coronavirus cases and their impact on lockdown measures will give clues on global oil demand trends
The Jackson Hole speakers could reveal common monetary policy trends in the foreseeable future (read: this year)
Stimulus negotiations in the U.S. and the headline-worthy announcements by the POTUS during the GOP convention can also influence overall demand for high-yielding bets like the Loonie

CAD has reached “overbought” Stochastic levels against GBP, NZD, AUD, EUR, and USD on the daily time frame
CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF are not too far behind

SMAs reflect CAD’s short and long-term bullish trends against NZD and safe-havens like USD, CHF, and JPY
Consider looking for retracements or reversals on GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD, and CAD/CHF‘s charts

CAD saw the most volatility against GBP, NZD, CHF, and AUD in the last seven days