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With no interest rate changes expected from the RBA for the next few years, demand for the Aussie will depend on overall risk appetite.

Planning on trading the Aussie this week?

Here are the potential catalysts that might move the high-yielding comdoll:

No rate changes from the RBA for a while

In case you missed it, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe recently shared that:

  • RBA isn’t expecting economic growth until at least Q4 2020
  • RBA won’t be lifting its interest rates “for at least three years
  • Boosting jobs is a priority, and continued fiscal support is needed

Lower-tier quarterly data

  • Construction work (Aug 26, 1:30 am GMT) could worsen from -1.0% to -6.2% in Q2 2020
  • Private capital expenditure (Aug 27, 1:30 am GMT) to see faster contraction (from -1.6% to -8.7%) in the same period
  • China’s annualized industrial profits (Aug 27, 1:30 am GMT) is expected to improve from -12.8% to -6.2% in July

Countercurrency updates and overall risk appetite

  • As we’ve seen last week, AUD traders still take cues from major data releases from other economies as well as the overall risk appetite for high-yielding currencies
  • Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China – especially ahead of this week’s GOP convention – can put a dent on the Aussie’s intraweek uptrends
  • Rising coronavirus cases in Australia and around the world and their impact on lockdown plans and global growth trends will continue to influence the demand for AUD
  • Though RBA isn’t expected to make policy changes, AUD traders will look to this week’s Jackson Hole headlines for clues on what tools and concerns major central bankers are looking at for the rest of the year

Technical snapshot

  • Stochastic considers the Aussie “oversold” against the Loonie
  • AUD/NZD is nearly “overbought” on the daily time frame
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs EMAs from MarketMilk
  • AUD was most volatile against USD, GBP, CHF, and JPY in the last seven days
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk
AUD Forex Pairs Volatility from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for August 17 – 21!