The RBA is up this week, fellas! Here’s a list of events you should watch out for if you’re trading the Aussie this week!
Retail sales (June 4, 2:30 am GMT)
Retail activity edged up 0.3% in March, which was higher than the 0.2% uptick that analysts had expected but weaker than the 0.9% upwardly revised growth seen in February.
The slowdown in retail sales might have spurred some bears into action, but the RBA’s decision to keep its interest rates steady – when many had priced in a rate cut – inspired relief rallies that pushed the Aussie higher against its major counterparts.
This week analysts expect to see retail activity grow by another 0.3% in April.
Take note that the RBA will be printing its monetary policy decision three hours later, though, so the Aussie’s reaction to the will likely be muted unless we see significant hits or miss.
RBA’s policy statement (June 4, 5:30 am GMT)
For a 30th month in a row, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rates at 1.50% in May.
Governor Philip Lowe and his team hinted that they’re more concerned about the “spare capacity” in the economy rather than growth and inflation concerns in the economy.
It might have also helped that the decision was so close to the scheduled Australian elections, and that keeping its policies steady projected stability.
In any case, a lot of traders had priced in a rate cut from the central bank, so the non-cut turned in favor of the Aussie bulls.
Can the RBA keep up its optimism this time around? Some believe that the weak inflation and tepid wage growth, and escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China would finally convince the central bank to pre-empt further economic weaknesses and cut its rates for the first time since August 2016.
On the other hand, cutting its rates now (and maybe once more later this year) would limit the RBA’s firepower in case the economy is thrown in a deeper rut down the road.
Watch this event closely, will you? A rate cut would confirm an easing bias in the region amidst worries of global trade tensions. If the RBA keeps its rates steady for another month, however, then we might see another Aussie rally that could last until the next economic catalyst.
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for (May 27 -31)!