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After early week choppiness then bump higher from the RBA, Aussie pairs had trouble holding onto their gains as global risk aversion soured with the U.S.-China trade story.
Australian Headlines and Economic data
Monday:
- Trump’s Tariff Threat Leaves Beijing Stalling on Next Talks – global financial markets jumped into risk aversion mode after news of Trump’s tariff threat to China, prompting a sell off in risk assets like the Australian dollar
- ANZ Job Ads: Possible stabilisation in Job Ads
- China April services sector expands further on strong export sales: Caixin PMI
Tuesday:
- Australian Construction falls at a steeper rate in April
- Australian retail sales weak, firms rate-cut case
- The balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4.9B in March 2019, a decrease of $191m on the surplus in February 2019.
- Reserve Bank interest rates: RBA leaves cash rate on hold at 1.5% – the market wasn’t decidedly on one side or the other between a rate hold or a rate cut, so it’s understandable that we did see a bullish reaction in the Aussie after the RBA stays unchanged on policy and optimistic on the outlook, especially given how Australian and global economic data has fared relatively weaker in the first quarter. By Wednesday, though, negative global risk sentiment related to the U.S.-China trade story put the pressure back on Aussie pairs into the Friday session.
Friday:
- Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy statement
- Trump’s 25% China tariffs begin as trade talks between two nations continue – this event and the various news updates leading up to the start of the tariffs were likely the reason for a pick up in volatility for currencies as traders moved back and forth between positive and negative risk sentiment. Eventually, sentiment became less negative before the close of the week as Trump says trade talks with China will continue, tariffs may or may not stay.