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Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, setting up a pivotal week as Islamabad peace talks, Warsh’s testimony, and US retail sales collide simultaneously.
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The framework assigned 25% to a diplomatic breakthrough. Iran’s Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open on Friday. Here’s what the scenarios got right — and what they missed.
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USD/CAD just broke through a key support zone! How much further can it fall before buyers step in for a more sustained bounce?
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AUD/CAD recently busted through the ceiling around the .9750 minor psychological mark but seems to be stalling on its rally. Can a pullback gather more bullish energy?
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GBP/USD’s climb looks strong on the surface, but upcoming U.K. GDP data could put the rally at risk. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is under broad pressure from a geopolitical backdrop that could flip quickly.
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EUR/GBP looks ready to extend its gains after finding support from a long-term range floor! Here’s what we’re seeing on the 4-hour time frame.
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If the AUD crowd goes mild at the March jobs results, then AUD/USD and GBP/AUD setups could start drawing more attention from traders.
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Stronger than expected Australian employment data could further stoke the hawkish RBA narrative, so I’m keeping an eye out for a bounce on AUD/USD and AUD/NZD in this scenario.
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Diplomatic progress pushed our Risk-On scenario to 40% probability, but the confirmed April 19 sanctions waiver expiry keeps a supply squeeze on a 96-hour countdown regardless.
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CHF/JPY has been on a steady climb these days, but its rally might be cut short as it closes in on a long-term ceiling. Will we see a bounce or break from here?
Read MoreGive a man a fish and he will eat for the day. Teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime.Chinese Proverb