The week opened as a declared US naval blockade of 20% of global energy supply and closed with Iran's Foreign Minister announcing the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial shipping — a resolution that the original framework placed at 25% probability and that arrived with more force than even the updated 40% framing anticipated. The Sunday cheat sheet assigned three scenarios: a blockade-holds standoff with an orderly equity grind lower (40%), a naval incident or Iranian retaliation (35%), and a surprise diplomatic breakthrough with Hormuz standing down (25%). The lowest-probability outcome at Sunday's open became the highest-probability outcome by Tuesday and the confirmed outcome by Friday. The week's master lesson was not about any individual asset — it was that when a diplomatic resolution activates in a conflict regime, it tends to activate harder than the scenario description suggests.