Jack the Pipper

China continues to believe it can make its problems just disappear. Running a country via a committee leads to that conclusion. The latest attempts, so far successful, have been the disappearance of anyone who comes close to saying something considered offensive as judged by the Ministry of Harmonious Speech and Thought Crime, a huge growth industry in China.

One of our Members wrote to me yesterday, basically telling me I was “full of it” if I thought the US dollar was going to do anything but maybe bounce at best, and only because it is so oversold; then it is headed into the dust pin. He is saying there is absolutely nothing that can change that inevitability.

One input to our US dollar bull market call at the beginning of the year was the potential shift in capital between the financial economy and the real economy. The stock market began a dramatic rally well before the US economic “recovery” took hold. And stocks have continued climbing.

One of our background themes, no great shakes as others hold the same view, has been the idea the Bank of England summons any available raw material to try to avoid hiking interest rates. Just maybe today they got it, and the British pound is acting accordingly.

As you likely know, the euro spiked (is still spiking) to a fresh intermediate-term high today, as the dollar is generally being whacked across the board–but there have been worse days for Mr. Greenie–many of them in fact.

Word has it that gasoline demand is rather sluggish now that prices are rising pretty steadily. Recent weekly drawdown in gasoline stocks plus rising crude oil prices have supported gasoline futures, but is the picture as bullish as it seems?

I was on the radio last Saturday to discuss currencies. Unfortunately I had some phone troubles and couldn’t finish the interview. One of the things I was going to talk about before my phone went dead was the fact that the gentleman on before me (a smart and nice man whom I respect) was absolutely gushing over the Canadian dollar’s huge rally.

It appears the European Central Bank is going to hike interest rates this week. Of course inflation is the reason, or should I say, inflation inside Germany is the reason. All proving once again what the euro experiment is all about…

The euro appears contained today. But what’s new? The upcoming jobs report is the reason the euro isn’t climbing again, even though next week the European Central Bank is highly expected to move interest rates up by 25 basis points.

I was chatting with number one son John Ross the other day–he will of course be here at the international headquarters of Black Swan Capital later for the annual Major League Baseball opening day hot dog eating contest with yours truly (number two son Brendan will be in the competition this year).