Jack the Pipper

As I scan the papers, and the web, I have noticed bank analysts and newsletter writers are becoming increasingly bearish on the US dollar.

Would it be a stretch to say once again the sovereign will of the people has been thwarted yet again?

Back in early 2000’s we considered such a warning as either total hogwash, or at the least a bit of hyperbole.

Based on the Stocks/Commodities ratio chart we have been following and sharing for the last several years, it’s now time to start buying commodities; at least in a greater proportion to stocks.

Australia’s jobless rate ticked lower in July led by a big bounce in part-time work while full-time employment fell, a mixed result that augurs poorly for wages growth and the course of inflation.

Do rising real yields cause the exchange rate to rise … or is it a rising exchange rate, impacting the fundamentals, which leads to rising yields?

GBP/JPY the risk trade? The chart below shows cross-rate for the British pound versus the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY).

Tomorrow we hear from Janet & Company, aka the US Federal Open Market Committee. It seems most analysts are expecting a more dovish tone given inflation hasn’t materialized.

Based on the positioning in Japanese yen – US dollar futures, as measured by the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT)

The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time.