Jack the Pipper

Boy, when wheat was surging higher early this week, bouncing back from some heavy selling last week, it sure looked like lingering weather problems were a lock for higher prices.

There seems to be a scramble afoot to define exactly why commodities plunged across the board the other day. Some blame a big trader, others the six-planet alignment, and many point to concern China is slowing.

That sure didn’t take long. Gold pulls back to $1,500 and we’re already asking whether it is a bubble on the verge of popping.

I got call yesterday afternoon from a very seasoned player in the world of finance. He is a man that has seen it all, many of these cycles again and again. He knows, or has worked, or has rubbed elbows, with the biggest names in the industry.

Earlier in the year when JR and I did our “Best Guess” Issue for 2011, aka our “Forecast” Issue, we talked about the key linkages in the global economy; I shared these again during my most recent webinar sponsored by Mirus Futures and CME. I think it still works well as a framework …

As I was perusing the very fine library of what Reuters calls its “eurozone crises graphs” I ran across this on yesterday and shared it with our Members. At no point in time while viewing anything on this graph did I think of “favorable or desired outcome” or “the attainment of wealth.”

Is the word “gutless” too harsh a description of the FOMC members? Or maybe I have it completely wrong, as it takes guts to take such a haphazard leap into monetary experimentation at such a critical time for the US and global economy.

What the hell does it mean anymore? Really? “A Strong and stable dollar is in the best interest of the US and global economy.” What does it mean?

Commodities investment seems to be taking on a Malthus-like mindset. But there are some reasons why current expectations could be upset quickly and most of them start with Ben Machiavelli Sun-Tzu Bernanke.

Maybe the European Central Bank hikes interest rates again as soon as June. Maybe the US Congress will continue to butt heads on deficit reduction plans. Maybe the Federal Reserve will resort to some new form of economic stimulus, aka QE3.