Jack the Pipper

It has been a bad idea to be a bear on China over the last few years (though not necessarily their stock market) based on the expectation the credit crunch would lead to a financial crisis there.

Since 2009 we’ve put forth a very important idea every time the consensus began to believe a real US economic recovery would take hold.

As a timing indicator, this approach lacks some precision partly because the COT data is reported with a few days lag.

A candid discussion on the things that are scaring investors right now

I have been getting my clients whacked on my short oil idea. But maybe hope springs eternal, as this setup may add some validation a “corrective top” may be in place.

There seems a lot more at play here with Russian troops now occupying the Crimea. Robert Kaplan told us a couple of years ago what to expect in his brilliant book, The Revenge of Geography [emphasis added]:

Chinese leaders’ know well the danger of a hard landing via the transmission of cascading defaults on rising debt across companies in key industries.

I recently shared some reasons why I thought the New Zealand dollar represented a good longer term short position. Since then, Kiwi (as the New Zealand dollar is affectionately known) has rallied a bit. My longer term bet here is pretty simple.

The Bank of England upgraded the UK GDP today. The pound rallied accordingly. Is BOE Governor Carney sending mixed messages? And if so, are his concerns valid?

I floated the idea in Currency Currents a year or so ago, suggesting maybe the euro was becoming the new yen given its economic backdrop relative to the price action.