Cleopiptra

With the push from Wednesday’s rally, the corrections in the trends on the U.S. Dollar Index and EUR/USD have triggered. Now the question is that has the RISK APPETITE of Wednesday exhausted?

It’s tough to pinpoint exactly at which point the exhaustion from today’s RISK ON rally will begin. It’s even tougher (on a day like today) to shift the focus to three specific charts where there is a downtrend (EUR/USD), an uptrend (U.S. Dollar Index), and no trend (the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

Here’s a series of videos that I recorded that walks you through a typical morning of determining risk appetite versus risk aversion and how I look at the Dow, U.S. dollar, and crude oil for clues in the forex market.

Today I am sharing with you a short, three video series that explains, step-by-step, a recent trade in the USD/CHF. It’s less about the trade itself and more about how I identified the opportunity and the environment it was setting up within.

There’s not a lot to say about the USD/JPY today. Everything that had to be said I think occurred a week ago with the test of 76.00. What I did want to outline here were the clues, the price levels, and the thinking behind the buy set up and the trigger of 76.00.

There’s a battle occurring between near-term sentiment (risk appetite) and a longer-term (bleaker) outlook for the market and specifically the euro. But the euro refuses to obey the headlines, the doubt, and the optimism trade is still on.

The EUR/USD’s rally today was a correction of the overall downtrend that can seen on the daily chart. This trend view from the daily is the most psychologically relevant opinion and therefore the most dominant view of the pair – regardless of today’s intraday move higher.

I have been waiting for a pullback in the USD/CAD and it’s here. The set up as well as my view on trends are explained here in this video, just 11 minutes!

The 60-minute chart has corrected the intraday downtrend and triggered a swing short. This is an overall trend following trade because the daily time frame is heading lower with a bearish Directional Bias.

How much longer until yen bulls feel emboldened to buy the yen again? It all depends on how long the BOJ intervention threat is weighing on trader’s minds. A resumption of the U.S. equities downtrend could put a lot of pressure on the USD/JPY.