Wanted to share a quick update on a couple of ideas that need adjustments: EUR/CAD & GBP/CHF long plays. Are the opportunities gone or still there for both pairs?
Closed Orders: GBP/CHF Pullback Long
Originally, I was looking to play the longer-term trend higher in GBP/CHF on a pullback, also playing the recent Bank of England rate hike and recent positive U.K. data.
The four hour picture has changed to a consolidation pattern since I posted my idea, and with a dovish tone from both BOE financial stability report and from U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox this morning, I think I’m going to step back from this pair in case the market gets short-term bearish on Sterling. With that in mind, I’ve decided to close down my open long order at 1.3000. No trade.
Going forward, I’m still bullish on this pair both technically and fundamentally, but in the short-term a pullback might be in order. If this consolidation pattern does break down, I’m looking for potential support around 1.2800 before getting interested again.
Closed Orders: EUR/CAD Uptrend Pullback
Since putting up my long orders last week on EUR/CAD, the bulls had no intention of letting this pair pull back last week with 1.5000 attracting a heck of a lot of support. Buyers hopped in big time to defend the level, eventually taking the pair higher to current trading levels just under 1.5200.
I’m still bullish on this pair, but with both the Canadian GDP and jobs data coming up at the end of this week (and the expectation is it won’t be good enough for the BOC to turn up tightening expectations) I think it’s a good idea to take my orders offline and see what the data and market reaction gives me.
Closed open orders to buy EUR/CAD at 1.4850.
Also with this pair, I’m still bullish on both price action and fundamentals, but with event risk and a less favorable risk-to-reward situation in the works, I think it’s a good idea to throw this one back onto the watchlist.
That just leaves me with my AUD/NZD short play still live and kicking in my favor. I’ll do a proper update soon, but at the moment the pair has broken down lower from its own recent consolidation to give me some positive pips. I’ll do a re-assessment this week and see what kind of adjustments make sense. Stay tuned for that, good luck and good trading!
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