Start your trading prep for the week by plotting these upcoming economic releases and market events on your schedule and checking out these potential plays.
BOE Financial Stability Report (Nov. 28, 7:00 am GMT)
Brexit has been on everyone and his momma’s mind for the past few months as uncertainties are starting to take their toll on businesses and financial activity. However, the upcoming bank stress test results included in the BOE Financial Stability report could shore up a bit of confidence in the sector if it shows mostly passing marks.
Note that this report is released only twice a year (less frequently than Cyclopip‘s quarterly bath time!) so it could have a pretty huge impact on pound pairs.
U.S. preliminary GDP (Nov. 29, 1:30 pm GMT)
Dollar fans may be down in the dumps after getting wind of the less upbeat view on inflation shared by Yellen and most FOMC members last week, but the upcoming preliminary GDP release could still lift its spirits.
This particular report, which is the second version of the GDP adjusted as more information trickled in, is expecting an upgrade from the initial 3.0% estimate to 3.3% for Q3.
Along with this, the preliminary version of the GDP price index, which is also used as an inflation gauge, would likely stay unchanged. Fed head Yellen has a speech scheduled after these releases, so she might touch upon the numbers real quick.
Euro zone flash CPI figures (Nov. 30, 10:00 am GMT)
The shared currency has been on quite a run recently, buoyed mostly by upbeat leading and lagging economic indicators. This has bolstered ECB rate hike expectations after the central bank starts its taper process next year.
For the month of November, the headline figure is slated to advance from 1.4% to 1.6% while the core reading could climb from 0.9% to 1.0%. Note that the German, Spanish, and French preliminary CPI readings will be printed earlier on and might provide clues on how the region’s numbers would turn out.
U.S. core PCE price index (Nov. 30, 1:30 pm GMT)
Since the spotlight has been on U.S. price levels last week, traders are likely to pay much closer attention to the core PCE price index, which is said to be the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% gain in price levels, slightly faster than the earlier 0.1% uptick. Still, weaker than expected readings could reinforce the view that inflation would take longer to meet its target.
Canadian GDP and jobs data (Dec. 1, 1:30 pm GMT)
Friday could prove to be an eventful day for the Loonie as Canada has its monthly GDP and employment figures on tap.
The economy is expected to have expanded slightly in September after printing a 0.1% contraction for August and a flat reading in July. However, another figure in the red could remind traders that the BOC is turning its tightening bias down a notch and could keep it down for a bit longer.
OPEC meetings (Nov. 29-30)
Last but most certainly not least is the highly-anticipated OPEC summit in Vienna starting on November 29 and concluding on the 30th. The cartel is widely expected to announce an output deal extension, whether by six or nine months.
Keep in mind, however, that this scenario has been priced in for quite some time, which means that profit-taking during the actual event is a strong possibility. There might even be the slight chance that the Black Crack Mafia disappoints!
Crude oil has already been on a tear for the most part of the month, which eases the pressure for the cartel to take additional measures to prop prices higher. Russia’s participation in the deal could also be a crucial market factor.
Charts to Watch:
Euro setups from the previous week favored the bulls, so are we about to see a repeat performance this time?
First off, mad props to Huck for catching this stellar downtrend on USD/CHF! Another test of the descending trend line and Fibs may be in the works as price is stalling close to the .9800 handle.
An upbeat U.S. GDP release or core PCE price index could bring back some love for the Greenback, but disappointing results could continue to undermine 2018 tightening expectations and simply lead to another break lower for this one.
Here’s another potential play for the anti-dollar traders out there! I’ve had my eye on Cable’s descending triangle pattern for quite some time, and it looks like it has made a convincing upside break.Now this pair has been treading inside a long-term ascending channel and the recent breakout seals in some bullish momentum off the support bounce.
This might be enough to take price up to the resistance or at least halfway through, depending mostly on how Brexit-related updates pan out. Then again, the U.K. manufacturing PMI release later in the week could put fundamentals back in the limelight.
I seem to be leaning towards long-term setups lately, but I just couldn’t resist this one on EUR/CAD. Price is testing the long-term ascending channel resistance just ahead of the euro zone CPI releases and the OPEC meeting.
A combination of upbeat CPI figures from the region and a disappointing announcement from the cartel could be enough to trigger an upside break from this consolidation pattern. In that case, the pair might be in for a 1,300-pip climb, which is the same height as the chart formation.