Trade Ideas

Boo hoo, I can’t believe I missed my entry by three measly pips! Better luck next time, I guess.

The EUR/USD and AUD/USD are at key levels after last week’s dollar correction. With the U.S. Dollar Index finding support within the 34EMA Wave, I examine in the video below where I think the selling pressure will be building in each pair as the the dollar attempts to regain the uptrend it was in on the daily time frame.

I got another signal this week, but once again the Stochastics is already above 80. This implies that I shouldn’t enter, as it could mean that this move up won’t last very long.

The trends on the daily time frame are getting clearer and that means that the 240-minute and 60-minute charts will be better candidates for follow-through.I had avoided these time frames when the daily charts were range-bound…

Even though I got the direction right, it didn’t matter… because I wasn’t in the trade! Apparently, the bears were too eager to sell the pair that they didn’t even let it retrace a bit!

Ouch! That rising trend line on NZD/USD’s daily chart broke, causing my trade to get stopped out. I should’ve canceled my trade when the price popped after missing my entry.

The U.S. Dollar has continued to rally as the dollar bulls still seem to have plenty of gas in the tank. Despite today’s pullback from the 81.20 level on the front-month contract of the U.S. Dollar Index, the uptrend is still intact across the 60 and 240-minute time frames.

What a bummer! I missed a really strong EUR/USD move with my HLHB system. There was a downward EMA crossover early this week, but it was an invalid signal for two reasons.

Guppy dropped down to hit my profit target, but unfortunately, my order didn’t get triggered!

Wow! Thanks to the run of risk aversion we saw yesterday, EUR/JPY tumbled down the charts, hitting my 2nd PT!

Looks like the pair couldn’t make new highs, as the pair reversed and eventually hit my adjusted stop at 132.90. With the pair breaking the channel support, could it be headed for new lows?

It’s Thanksgiving week – a holiday shortened week that is mainly going to effect the turnover in the U.S. but considering that the hours between 8:00am and Noon EST are typically the most volatile for dollar-correlated pairs, this is significant.

Bah! I thought EUR/USD was in the midst of a new downtrend, but I was wrong. Apparently, the market took the news of Ireland banks needing a bailout as GOOD news and bought up EUR/USD. How messed up is that?!?

With all the questions surrounding the risk appetite and risk aversion seen with this week’s volatility, it looks like indecision will have the final say as the week closes out. The U.S. Dollar has re-entered the range as the index has slid lower back below 79.00. This further confirms the likelihood for distribution on the daily time frame.

Soon after I posted my trade idea, news came out that the books from Ireland banks would be examined to see whether or not they can handle the debt load. This bit of news seemed to have calmed the markets down enough to spark an unwind of USD positions and a EUR/USD rally.

If you think about it, it’s pretty clear why AUD/USD shot up so quickly. It’s just a pity I wasn’t able to join the party!

Boo hoo! I almost got a potential signal but Stochastic is already over the 80 mark! The next candle also hasn’t shown signs of hitting the 30 pip filter as well.

If yesterday’s Dow Jones pullback could have been used as an indication to the risk aversion seen today, then I feel traders would have much more aggressively shorted the EUR/USD and the AUD/USD earlier in the day and as Europe and the U.K. opened.

My trade orders were triggered as the Greenback rallied against the majors on a renewed focus on European debt issues. Unfortunately for my trade, and the EU, these worries have intensified, pushing USD/CHF to my stop out level.

I still feel like I am waiting – like last week – for the dollar to make up its mind. The move higher on the U.S. Dollar Index has found some momentum and near-term support above the October highs, but continuation would mean an uptrend and I’m not convinced that there is enought bullishness for that…yet.