With both U.S. employment data and the ISM manufacturing PMI update tomorrow, I thought there would be no better place to look for short-term opportunities than in the Greenback. Will the top tier events bring USD/CHF to retest either end of its range?
USD/CHF Range Retest?
Fundamentally, both the ISM manufacturing PMI data (leading indicator of business sentiment) and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report (update on the employment situation in terms of jobs created, wage growth, and hours worked) are both top tier events that could spark some action for the Greenback. Volatility tends to lead to opportunity and in this case, I’ll be watching USD/CHF to see if either end of the range its been in over the three months will be tested.
The overall trend for the Greenback has been to the downside for most of 2017, so I’m definitely looking to play the downside bias if the pair pops up to the .9700 – .9750 range, but I wouldn’t mind taking a short-term long position on a retest of the bottom of the range around .9450.
The ideal setup for me is if both ISM and NFP disappoints and somehow .9750 is tested. If that’s the case, I’ll look for a short entry then with a target at the bottom of the range, maybe even beyond.
For me to go long USD/CHF at the bottom of the range, both ISM and NFP would have to come in better-than-expected and for the European PMI data coming out earlier to come inline or disappoint; its likely the Swiss franc will weaken if the European PMI data is weak as it tends to move with the euro.
So, no orders today but be on the lookout for a new trade if my conditions are met and price action confirms the data. As always, remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Create your own ideas and don’t simply follow what I do.
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